Friday, October 31, 2014

The Syria Lessons

PRINCETON – As the United States and Russia try to broker a conference that can bring the various sides in the Syrian conflict to the negotiating table, potential Western participants, at least, should be thinking about the larger implications of the Syrian conflict for dictators and democracies around the world. Here are the lessons thus far:

Bad guys help their friends. The Russians and Iranians are willing to do whatever it takes to keep President Bashar al-Assad in power. Hezbollah, supplied by Iran, has now moved openly onto the battlefield in support of the Assad regime. Russia and Iran have kept the Syrian government supplied with heavy weapons and other military assistance, including a Russian shipment of sophisticated anti-ship missiles with advanced radar systems. These will help Assad hunker down and fend off all comers in an Alawite mini-state that will include the Russian-leased port facility at Tartus.

Diplomacy without a credible threat of force is empty talk. “Speak softly and carry a big stick,” Theodore Roosevelt counseled. President Barack Obama rightly wants to lead in global affairs through civilian more than military power; he understands that military solutions to foreign-policy problems are hugely expensive and often counter-productive in terms of advancing US security and prosperity over the long term.

But Obama’s strategy in Syria seems to be “speak loudly and throw away your stick.” Obama has made it clear over and over (as has NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen) that he has no interest in intervening militarily in Syria. And the US response to the latest Russian missile shipment? Secretary of State John Kerry said: “I think we’ve made it crystal clear we would prefer that Russia was not supplying assistance.”

The US has cast aside one of its most important foreign policy tools, creating an incentive for the Syrian government and its supporters to keep fighting until they are in the most advantageous position possible to negotiate a settlement – that is, if they have any incentive to negotiate at all.

If you are a dictator facing sustained political protests, be as brutal as possible and incite sectarian killing. Part of Syria’s agony is the self-fulfilling nature of the conflict. From March to December 2011, hundreds of thousands of Syrians marched every Friday, seeking the same political liberalization that Tunisians, Egyptians, Yemenis, Bahrainis, Jordanians, and others across the Middle East and North Africa sought in what was optimistically called “the Arab Spring.” Unarmed, they were shot in the streets by riot police and government snipers, until they finally started forming small local militias for self-protection – militias that gradually grew into the loose federation of forces now known as the Free Syrian Army.

All the while, Assad was describing the violence as the product of terrorists and Sunni extremists seeking dominion over minority Alawites, Druze, Kurds, Christians, and other groups. He worked assiduously to fan the flames of sectarian civil war, succeeding to the extent that now the chief reason for not intervening to stop the killing is the impossibility of doing so effectively in an environment of sectarian violence.

Regional organizations are still unable to solve regional problems without great-power leadership. Turkey has been threatening and calling for military action for 18 months, but US officials say that the Turks are not in fact ready to do anything beyond providing support for refugees and opposition fighters. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are also sending arms to Syrian opposition groups, but the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council are paralyzed. Without a great power that is willing both to share the lead and to push from behind, regional organizations cannot take charge in their own neighborhood.

Human suffering, even on a massive and destabilizing scale, will not move the world to action. In a recent conversation about Syria with a couple of well-known foreign policy experts, one participant suggested that the Middle East’s current borders, drawn in colonial times, cannot last and must be redrawn. I pointed out the possibility of a Middle East conflagration equivalent to the Thirty Years War in Europe, which is estimated to have killed between half and three-quarters of the population of some of the participating states. One of my interlocutors agreed, but said that we could do nothing to stop it, because “that’s the period of history we’re in.”

For all the world’s pious proclamations about “never again,” a mantra arising from the Holocaust, mass murder almost never motivates foreign intervention. It is astounding to think that the world mobilized immediately to push Iraq out of Kuwait in 1991, but has dithered for more than two years as tens of thousands of Syrians have been killed, and their country, a cradle of civilization, laid waste.

“Humanitarian” intervention – action that is motivated by our concern for the fate of fellow human beings – is often described as reflecting “moral concern.” But how many wars does it take for us to understand that killing always begets more killing? People who watch the butchering of their children and parents, the rape of their wives, daughters, and sisters, and the wanton destruction of their homes and livelihoods do not forget. They carry vengeance in their hearts from generation to generation, until a measure of justice is done, nursing their enmity in frozen conflicts that block economic growth, prevent the formation of social capital, and paralyze political institutions.

When no side in a war has a reason to stop fighting, a peace conference cannot succeed. In Syria, the moral, strategic, and political arguments all converge in favor of decisive action to stop the killing, if not forever, at least for now, to create a space for peace. But if the lessons of the past two years are any guide, the wheels of violence will keep on turning.

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  1. CommentedAmmar Nouri

    Simply bless you Anne-Marie Slaughter. You managed to make me tear and that is not somehing comon my family sees as I read articles. Your words were as if you have put your fingers on a bleeding wound. Bless you...
    Writers like you make us hold on and not give up on the international community. Yes, we are being massacared daily by Assad and his thugs, and Yes our country is destroyed. This is the high price we are paying and we will not lose. Thank you .....

  2. CommentedChristopher Nelson

    The President's strategy doesn't suggest "speak loudly and throw away your stick," it suggests speaking firmly and ensuring we don't end up using a stick to beat ourselves upside the head (i.e., much like the decision to attack Iraq). Further action in Syria makes little sense at this time. There's no vital American interest in imminent danger, and there are still alternatives to using military force, such as strengthening the existing sanctions. If it's a pissing contest to see which country can win a proxy-war, then it says more to stay above the fray than to dig ourselves another hole so deep in the Middle East.

  3. CommentedFrank O'Callaghan

    Hard to take this seriously. A cheerleader for the destabilizing of societies all over the Arab world and a supporter of 'friendly' dictators. There is no credibility to this.

    Ask the surviving Iraqis if they are better off now.

    The Syrian mess was caused by opportunists. The outcome will be negative for most Syrians.

    Shameless cheer leading.

  4. CommentedPaul A. Myers

    Allowing Assad to hunker down in an Alawite mini-state might be a very sensible outcome. Other ethnic groups such as the Sunnis and the Kurds could have their own Syrian mini-states.

    Devolving ethnic groups into mini-states might be one approach to dissolving those long-ago colonial borders in other parts of the Middle East and South Asia. Then mini-states could then in the future confederate based on economic shared interests if they think their ethnic political interests are secure.

    I do not think it is a question of the US intervening in Syria, because if the US were to intervene in Syria, besides then "owning" Syria, the US would be asked to intervene across the entire region in one way or the other. I think I hear the American people saying pretty loudly--No!