PARIS – Biology and economics face similar challenges: both seek to explain survival and innovation in an unpredictable world. For example, Nassim Taleb, famous for his prescient identification of rare “black swan” events that are correlated with economic catastrophes, recently proposed the notion of “anti-fragility” as a way to conceptualize the reproduction of markets and output in the face of such events. In fact, anti-fragile structures and processes are all around us – suffusing life itself.
To define anti-fragility, Taleb asks what would be the true opposite of “fragile.” Starting with the Sword of Damocles, he chooses as its opposite not the robustness of the Phoenix rising from the ashes, but the inventiveness of the Hydra, who sprouts two heads whenever one is cut off. Can we think of entities that not only resist the ravages of time, but that, through the creation and recombination of novel components, become able to cope with an unpredictable future?
The inevitability of death might seem to suggest that life is not constructed to be anti-fragile. But consider King Mithridates VI of Pontus, who took a tiny daily dose of poison to protect himself from poisoning by his enemies. The idea that better fitness results when systems are challenged by a low level of toxic or other dangerous influences is at the root of an ongoing heated debate about whether low-level radiation benefits, rather than harms, humans.
The problem is the lack of unambiguous evidence of Mithridatism. We know that exercise, for example, will change muscle strength and bone mass and structure, but is this what we are looking for when seeking anti-fragility’s essence?
Anti-fragility, as defined by Taleb, seems less biologically disputable than Mithridatism. Indeed, anti-fragility appears to be a general quality of evolving systems. It does not correspond to isolated objects, but to populations. And here we do indeed observe Hydra-like behavior in the evolution of living beings: in the course of time, natural selection will use genetic mutations in populations to split their progeny into two or more distinct species.
Living organisms are always composite. They are made of populations of molecules, cells, or individuals that are not identical, but that are similar to one another. When we think of anti-fragility in living organisms, we do not think that specific aging structures improve when confronted with low-level challenges, but rather that there is an in-built genetically-encoded process that uses time-dependent accidents to make the organism as a whole better adapted to its environment. While the components of the organism keep aging, as an ensemble they improve over time, forming a collection of specific individual instances, before they suffer the inevitable decay of senescence.
This implies that, as it ages, the organism extracts and uses information from its environment in order to respond to that environment’s unpredictable challenges. Life measures and memorizes: it uses the built-in variety in its otherwise similar components to store memory of past events so that they can be used to react to a novel situation.
The basic memory of an organism’s heredity is not composed of identical components, but rather is what the physicist Erwin Schrödinger in his famous book What is Life called an “aperiodic crystal” – a concept that gave rise to molecular biology. The concept, most importantly, implies a lack of permanent accurate identity: the organism reproduces (it keeps being similar to itself), rather than replicating (its progeny are not an exact copy of itself). This means that no general grand design or unique hierarchy, but rather a collection of smaller entities of similar design, cooperate to generate the global behavior of the organism.
Much of the memory in our brain, for example, is dispersed among a huge number of contacts between many neurons. These contacts are not identical in different individuals or in different memories. Before the catastrophic decline of real senescence occurs, the way these contacts evolve improves over time: the capacity for collecting new memories may be slowly declining as a process, but memory as a whole increases. This is the paradox of what scientists call the “growth advantage in stationary phase”: when old and young microbial cultures are forced to compete, the old one, contrary to intuition, wins the contest.
By allowing some individual entities to stand out from the crowd, anti-fragility improves the fate of a population under a challenging situation. The number of candidates for anti-fragile behavior among biological structures is enormous. Cells are essentially made of macromolecules, which, even when coded from the same gene, are never entirely identical to one another. The very process of macromolecular biosynthesis is tied to the structure of the environment. No two cells are the same.
This remarkable variety, deployed within a strict genetic envelope that limits its range, roots life in anti-fragility. This is an essential point that biology should retain. And, as the global economy responds to the unpredictable challenges of economy crisis and recovery, it is a point that economists, too, should bear in mind.


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PROCYON MUKHERJEE
The article hinges on the premise that events are unpredictable and it depends on adaptability or engineering that makes one behave like a hydra that could fend off against the multitudes of unpredictable situations. The question is as Taleb pointed out in his brilliant example of the ‘weight of the turkey’ problem, to an ignorant commoner the weight would have continued to go up predictably, while for the executioner, with every approaching day to the thanksgiving the weight would have only one approachable meaningful value, which is zero. We are in a perpetual speculative world, where gains and losses are mutually exclusive and for every good bet, there is a winner and a loser; it does not matter what the event is, as long as there is a betting opportunity and any side makes eminent economic sense as the rules could be changed by the more informed.
Procyon Mukherjee
Edvin David Lemus
I think that some people and other animals haven't realize yet is that if you take Mr. Taleb's ideas, writings, papers, his framing of problems and providing solutions, his cumulative works; he is in of himself a mini-institution, otherwise David Cameron wouldn't listen to him, and he'll just seem as another guy talker, very avant-garde, yes, yet who isn't interested in new ideas.
Zsolt Hermann
I agree with the main theme of the article that biology, or human psychology face similar challenges to economy, basically our economy is the reflection of the human interrelationships.
In terms of the idea of "anti-fragility", as the article explains, through evolution organisms have become more complex as they evolved from singular molecules, cells to composite organisms, through the union and cooperation in between billions of different elements.
These composite organisms represented and represent qualitatively higher levels, on one hand more sensitive and vulnerable, but on the other hand more suited to adapt to the changing conditions of the environment.
Many times we think with humanity this evolution process has finished, and we represent some sort of a crown at the top of the evolution change, but as we see from the ever changing environment, and also how human society is transforming and how the dynamics of human relationships change, this evolution process has not stopped, it is still ongoing.
And today when the whole of humanity has evolved into a closed, global, integral system, where individual or even national separation is becoming irrelevant, where we learn each day how much we all depend on each other even for our necessities, and none of us, and no nation could sustain itself on its own, we arrived to our next step.
The question is how long it takes for us to recognize that we need to step onto our next evolutionary degree which would represent the next composite organism, a single, united human system where each and every human being would rise above our inherent differences, culture, traditions, prejudice and start building a new platform in a virtual space in between us, where we make our plans, and actions for the benefit of the whole system.
Our different characteristics would not disappear, we would not turn into clones or zombies without individualism or personal thoughts and desires. But above all those, and keeping all those we would connect to work together in a mutual manner, like a multi dimensional, multi colored matrix.
What is our motivation to do so?
As usual evolution is pushing organisms forward by necessity, making the present actual level so unbearable that the species has to adapt or it cannot survive. Even within human evolution this is the reason we moved on, through revolutions, uprisings, explorations and so on, and as the global crisis is getting worse and unsolvable, since our present socio-economic system is unsustainable, we are forced to change in order to survive.
But today we have enough knowledge, talent and experience to make the next step without waiting for the unbearable state to force us, simply by studying our global, integral system and work out how to adapt to it.
Interestingly this would not just simply give us survival possibilities, but as every time an evolutionary jump happens we could get a qualitatively higher awareness, perception as well.
At the moment we are all closed into our own little subjective, self calculating bubbles, this is the cause of all our misunderstandings, and our inability to solve the present global, or local problems.
In the new type of human relationships, when we consider the well being of the whole ahead of our own, and start to view reality through that perspective, always viewing everything through the prism of our mutual interrelationships, we would gain a much higher level of understanding of the working of the whole system, the causes and consequences, thus gaining a qualitatively higher level of perception of reality.
From that perception working out the new type of economics, suited to the new type of human relationships would be automatic and self understanding.