Monday, October 20, 2014
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Revigorizar a los ricos para ayudar a los pobres

WASHINGTON, DC.– Por tercera vez en cinco años, los países más pobres del mundo corren el riesgo de ser golpeados por una crisis que no generaron: una eventual caída derivada de la agitación financiera en las economías más avanzadas del planeta. Luego de pasar el shock de los alimentos y combustibles de 2007-2008 y la subsiguiente crisis financiera, los países de bajos ingresos pueden verse frente a trastornos aún mayores en 2012. Y, dada la interdependencia del mundo globalizado actual, las dificultades de los países pobres inevitablemente tendrán consecuencias indeseadas para todos, ricos y pobres indistintamente.

En el punto más álgido de la crisis global de 2009, muchos países de bajos ingresos experimentaron una desaceleración del crecimiento marcada por caídas en las exportaciones, menores remesas por parte de sus trabajadores expatriados, y disminuciones en la inversión extranjera. Las consecuencias sociales fueron graves: el Banco Mundial estima que 64 millones de personas fueron dejadas en la extrema pobreza a finales de 2010.

Sin embargo, pudo ser mucho peor. Gracias a los resultados considerablemente mejores de las políticas implementadas durante la década previa, los países de bajos ingresos llegaron a la crisis en una situación mucho más apta que en el pasado para resistir los shocks. Tenían menores déficits fiscales y de cuenta corriente, menos inflación, reservas internacionales más abultadas y –en parte gracias a los planes de alivio de la deuda– menor carga por endeudamiento.

Como resultado, la mayoría de los países pudieron mantener o incluso aumentar el gasto a pesar de las reducciones en sus ingresos, y permitir que los déficits fiscales se ampliaran. Esto sostuvo el crecimiento económico al tiempo que impulsaba los desembolsos para los programas sociales y de inversión críticos necesarios para atenuar las dificultades que enfrentaban las personas más pobres. El empeoramiento fue de duración relativamente corta, en parte como resultado de la mayor apertura al comercio mundial que adoptaron los países de menores ingresos durante la década pasada.

Pero estos países aún son muy vulnerables. Muchos no han tenido tiempo suficiente para reconstruir los amortiguadores de políticas que tan bien funcionaron. Cuentan con menos municiones en sus arsenales fiscales, sus déficits de cuenta corriente han aumentado, han perdido reservas y los niveles de deuda se incrementaron significativamente en algunos países. Por otra parte, con las economías avanzadas frente a presiones presupuestarias, la ayuda extranjera puede verse seriamente limitada durante algún tiempo. Ante esas circunstancias, no hay ningún tipo de certeza para los países de bajos ingresos respecto de su acceso a financiamiento adicional en condiciones favorables.

Como resultado, una nueva caída mundial los golpearía duramente. Las simulaciones realizadas por el Fondo Monetario Internacional sugieren que una disminución en el crecimiento mundial de 1,5 puntos porcentuales podría, debido a su impacto sobre el comercio y los flujos financieros, generar una brecha de 27 mil millones de dólares en financiamiento externo adicional tan solo en 2012. Eso también empujaría a 23 millones de personas más –la mayoría en el África subsahariana y Asia– a la pobreza.

¿Qué pueden hacer los países para ayudarse a sí mismos? El alcance del estímulo fiscal es más limitado que en 2009, pero los países con suficiente margen de maniobra fiscal y financiamiento disponible deberían mantener sus niveles de gasto y preservar los programas sociales y de infraestructura críticos. Los países con inflación moderada podrían ser más enérgicos en sus políticas monetarias y de tipos de cambio.

Una prioridad clave para 2012 y los años siguientes será construir una mayor capacidad de recuperación de los shocks. Los países de bajos ingresos deberían estimular las bases de ingresos para reducir su dependencia del financiamiento externo, al tiempo que mejoran la eficiencia del gasto. Especialmente, mejorar el alcance y la selección de beneficiarios de las redes de seguridad social ayudará notablemente a proteger a los más pobres en caso de desaceleraciones globales aún mayores. Muchos países, incluidos Armenia, Burkina Faso, Sierra Leona, Ghana, y Kenia, han avanzado exitosamente en esta dirección, utilizando programas de vales de alimentos vinculados a la capacidad económica de los beneficiarios, prestaciones maternales y familiares, servicios sociales escolares, y esquemas de transferencia condicional de fondos centrados en los grupos más vulnerables, como los huérfanos.

En el largo plazo, los países de bajos ingresos se beneficiarían diversificando sus economías y evitando la dependencia excesiva de unos pocos productos y socios comerciales. Las economías más diversificadas tienen mayores probabilidades de generar crecimiento más inclusivo: crecimiento que crea trabajo para más personas y distribuye sus beneficios de manera más amplia. Para impulsar las posibilidades de crecimiento en el largo plazo y la productividad, los países con bajos ingresos también deberán cubrir enormes necesidades de infraestructura, especialmente en las áreas de generación de energía y transporte.

¿Qué podemos hacer para ayudar? El FMI está listo para asistir con asesoramiento en políticas, apoyo financiero y asistencia técnica. Hemos ampliado nuestra capacidad de préstamo en condiciones favorables a 17 mil millones hasta 2014, y duplicamos las cantidades que pueden retirar los países. También hemos disminuido las tasas de interés en todos los créditos de condiciones favorables a cero durante 2012. Hemos flexibilizado nuestros instrumentos crediticios, para qué la asistencia financiera pueda llegar rápidamente a nuestros miembros, dejando suficiente margen para que los gastos de alta prioridad apoyen el crecimiento y protejan a los más vulnerables.

Finalmente, la mejor forma en que la comunidad internacional puede ayudar a los países de bajos ingresos es que las economías avanzadas pongan sus casas en orden y restablezcan un crecimiento global sólido y sostenible. Eso ayudará a garantizar que los países de bajos ingresos mantengan su rumbo hacia la consolidación y ampliación de los impresionantes logros de la última década.

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  1. CommentedJonathan Lam

    Gamesmith94134@ The Anatomy of Global Economic Uncertainty
    In the search of the optimal paradigm for the four dynamics as in economic and financial or social and political, after the lender and debtor placed in growth and development we can see the clear distinctions on globalization, profitability, and balance of payments are pretty extreme; especially when the basis of the exchange in its value of currencies or durable goods like the real estate, or resources like oil changes. They do created the uncertainty on how we saw in the historical values integrated with change on the status from the globalization, profitability, and balances of payment. Perhaps, when we observe the deleveraging on the value of the economical advances or the currencies after the liquidity turned to solvency problems; and the exchange rate on the currencies made sit worsen on the restoring the historical values-----uncertainty on the value of the currencies made the foundation of the present exchange system collapsible even after the Libor rate principle is no longer relevant from the changes in globalization, profitability and the balance of payments.
    At first, we would question the title of the “Consumer of the World’, America and the merging of the European Union after the 92’. It sounds as the game of monopoly in the stock and commodity markets. It was the price market that most emerging market nations attempt to catch up with the economical growth by offering its labors and cheaper currencies; and the economical giants like US and EU were taking advantages of the profitability; but they gave up the industries that utilized its human resources by prompt on the raising salaries on the high end industries they sustained, and the government themselves shared their profits with government workers like teacher, policeman and fireman, and the growth push the cost of living standard forward the most labors were benefited from the surge. When their high end jobs missed their competitions from the emerging market nations, the balance of payment was default with deficits. Since the Western world is short on the political will to adjust and deprive the inflation, the liquidity traps were set in the quantitative easing with more bonds to sell.
    Perhaps, the key point was the excessiveness of the funds created after the issuance of the bonds with less of equity backings. Then, they accompanied with the financial establishment like banks boomed with the inflated pricing, hoping the emerging market nations accept its inflation by raising its currencies rates to exchange instead of harvesting the surpluses. Consequently, these issues were not purchased by investments of its people nor corresponded by the revenues of its government. Thus, it created the sovereignty debt that the foreigners must pay as the bearer of the issuance of these bonds. It went on to build up the price on stock or commodity; but the interest rate was mutated by its anemic growth in the developed nations; and inflation hit the emerging market nations with hike on the labor cost. Then, in due process, sovereignties are separated in the globalization after the fact on the political ends; while the debtor nations shirked with its debt, and the emerging market nations restricted the floating rate from inflation. It is why globalization was not a part of free trade in the sake of sovereignty under its protectionism.
    However, the bond issuers had applied the liquidity instead of solvency to the deficits or create growth, in reverse, they also developed the bubble in the stock and commodity market and the exchanges rates with their suppression of the interest rate to growth variation that the funds were created had no basis for growth, and its currencies were devalued. Then profitability was questionable on the displacement of time and value as it were; when the interest rate was under the spell of monopoly, that neither dollar nor Euro was the only alternative in storage of value in free will either. Soon as the deficit surface, the secondary storage, like real estate or commodity does not reflect the value of the future. The market collapsed on the demand of the appropriate compensation with hike of interest rate. With lesser success to improve the exchange in the bonds, the credits dragged on to the financial, that most medium business structure suffered most of the credit crunch. Then, profitability is limited on the established business and the medium business lost its profitability from the cash it must store or raise more to survive rather to gain. Since the anemic growth will continue globally and inflation hit harder to the labor cost for those exposed to the profitable nations and developed establishments. ..then, the credit crunch set in for the ordinary working class too in amending the balance of payment, from his credit card to home mortgage. Eventually, his job is hanging by a thread due to the eroding job market and the other is fighting inflation with low rising income or wages.
    Perhaps, we are identifying a limited set of explanatory variables in what statisticians call “a reduced-form equation”, from the changes in the value line that flip flap in the merging globalization how each is sensitive to inflation and deflation; or, how profitable is each investment we are involved whether it is stocks, commodities or bonds may not be depended on the outcome but how it would evolved relatively to others like the exchange of the currencies; or it is more depandable on the reveiws on the balance of payments from the soveriegnties, and from average working class as well, since the present political environment is much vulnarable to change whether it was keynesian or socialististic. It is hard to tell how we value on the currencies or the government is soaked in the welfare state, and is coming to drown itself. Finally, I am looking forward in the next years in the settlement of the Euro and its sovereignty debts; and how the Western world looking at the globalization by fending off China or reminbi which had already set from the watermark of the global economy, and it is not going away. However, I would expect another new world order that is much stabler than the Euro-dollar rule, in the multi-speed, and multi-currencies Zones mode, which will extended its protection on its sovereignty power and currencies in running its domestic financial and global financial; so, monopoly or hegmony is no longer relevant in our civilized community and financial world.
    May the Buddha bless you?

  2. CommentedAlexander Antonov

    Reality of crisis-proof economy

    Economics as an exact science has not yet been developed. This is confirmed by the fact that the major economic phenomenon – economic crises – has no comprehensive explanation. This is accounted for by the lack of an appropriate mathematical description of economics, which is natural, because none of the mathematical tools used in economics allow giving such a mathematical description.
    Firstly, all of them are aimed at the investigation of mass phenomena, because the economic behavior of an individual is unpredictable. For instance, Sir Isaac Newton wrote on the issue that simulating human behavior is a more complicated task than predicting planetary motion. However, try to imagine the development of radio-electronics, if it refused to study the processes in radio-electronic components comprising all complicated radio-electronic systems due to the unpredictable behavior of single electrons.
    Secondly, the methods for analysis of economic situations widely used at present – graphical, statistical, econophysical – allow defining only states, and not processes.
    Processes are defined by differential equations, which have found quite restricted application in economics.
    This is why, using the term introduced by William Ross Ashby, economics can be referred to as ‘the black box’ and studied using the methods borrowed from the exact sciences. In particular, the term ‘the white box’ introduced by Norbert Wiener can be used; it corresponds to the object under investigation where processes identical in terms of their mathematical description to those in ‘the black box’ are observed. Moreover, mathematical description of the processes in ‘the white box’ is available. That is, basically, the analogy approach is used.
    Unfortunately, ‘the white box’ in the exact sciences has not yet been found for the current market economy. This is how complicated and unique economic phenomena are. Nevertheless, ‘the white box’ does exist for the economy reformed as suggested below.
    However, to begin with, let us find ‘the white box’ not for economics in general, but for the basic process, which is the ‘goods-money-goods’ process. The author demonstrates that this process is potentially oscillating and can be described with a second-degree differential equation with constant coefficients, similar to the mathematical description of the process in a radio-electronic oscillation circuit. That is, an electric oscillation circuit can be used as ‘the white box’ with regard to the ‘goods-money-goods’ process.
    However, such an oscillation process is unknown in the economy and has never before been implemented. The matter is that its implementation requires special conditions which cannot be created in a random way. Similarly, for instance, TVs and cars are not assembled at random, houses and bridges are not built in a random fashion, and food cannot get into a supermarket randomly, and so on. Any constructive activities always require certain knowledge, and economics is not an exception.
    In this respect, it is quite natural to ask whether economics needs these oscillation processes and the respective knowledge about them. Actually, it does, because only in this case money works all the time and most efficiently. Otherwise, there is always either shortage or surplus of money. As for oscillation processes, they are preferred and widely used not only in economics, but in nature and the exact sciences, as well. Here belong, for example, rotation of electrons around the nucleus and the revolution of planets about the Sun. Nothing can exist without the oscillation processes. Therefore, they should not be ignored in any science.
    However, due to ignorance of these circumstances, the actual economic process ‘goods-money-goods’ is described not with a linear differential equation with constant coefficients, but with a linear differential equation with variable coefficients, which is often referred to as the parametric differential equation. This is accounted for by the aforementioned unpredictability of human behavior, or the human factor, which was referred to as ‘the invisible hand’ by Adam Smith. For this reason, the coefficients of the parametric differential equation describing the real ‘goods-money-goods’ process are not just functions of time, but random functions of time. Therefore, these differential equations have no analytical solution. As for the market economy which is described by systems of these parametric differential equations, it is unpredictable; this is why economic crises in it are inevitable.
    Consequently, in order to be able to prevent economic crises, it is necessary to reform the economy. To this end, it is necessary to create the conditions providing for minimization of the human factor. The author suggests new economic tools enabling to solve the problem. Here belong business-interfaces, which provide for minimization of the internal human factor, and the new global information network free from the shortcomings of the Internet, which provides for minimization of the external human factor. The latter offers its users numerous business- and intellectually-oriented services.
    Socialist economy also provided for the successful suppression of the human factor (at that, contrary to business-interfaces, human rights and freedoms were suppressed, as well). Nevertheless, it was a prosperous economy. Therefore, business-interfaces must provide for linearization of the actual ‘goods-money-goods’ processes, i.e., for minimization of non-linear factors.
    The economy reformed as suggested above will become crisis-proof, and economics will become an exact science similar to the theory of electric circuits and systems, which is ‘the white box’ with regard to ‘the black box’ of economics.

      CommentedJonathan Lam

      Gamesmith94134: Dr. Doom Warns Wall Street and Washington---- Heed Karl Marx's Warning!


      Mr. Gert van Vugt,
      You make the best description on the theory on the economical growth Paradigm that the economic change seems like Malthusian’s diminishing return, and I agree. However, Mr. Roubini makes his point on the social disruption reverse itself through the diminishing demand. If we can put away the elements like the Ponzi scheme and benefactors in social caused deficiency or defects to growth. Corruption by capitalism and the dependency by socialism among societies both caused failure in the economical and societal development.
      Perhaps, we focus on the circuitry on the accumulation of wealth and consumable wealth that runs the economy. It seems both the capitalism and socialism ran short and proven wrong in the economical model or social model that became self-destructive; eventually, the economy runs from diminishing demand to diminishing return, or vice versa. So, if we use the living standard as the equilibrium position to the supply line of the circuitry of wealth balanced by both of the diminishing return and diminishing demand.
      How about I call my paradigm on the wealth circuitry in economical and social growth that supports and balances both accumulated wealth and consumable wealth; and it created a “Z” shaped development running both on the diminishing demand and diminishing return; which is based on the assumption, the route above the standard of living equal in length with the one below the standard of living is in agreement of its living standard to sustain a viable growth, which contains;
      • The base line as the diminishing return where the societies kept peace with its populace that consumable wealth that cause economical displacement like with its negative growth or no growth; it provides entitlement or social programs with non-productive individual citizens for example, 27% of its population on welfare with add-on with subsidies to sustain a standard of living.
      • The top line as the diminishing demand that ended with accumulated wealth favors of concentrated wealth owned by individuals that ended with profitless, 1% holds 27% of the global or national wealth, plus those with extra wealth is not in production yields to no growth.
      • And the diagonal line that connected to both ends is the support of the price and value in the middle is the standard of living which contains the most of the productive individuals who is moving up and down the ladder of growth.
      If more of the wealth accumulated than the wealth consumed, then it causes saturation of the wealth. The diminishing demand under the standard of living agreement made the demand idle because of the shortage of consumption. In the process, the standard of living will go down to meet its demand after the deflationary measure to make it consumable. In reverse, the wealth consumed is over the wealth accumulated, as it is less profitable. Then, it triggers the inflationary measures to aggregate demand to accumulate more wealth in its diminishing return mode; eventually it will balance itself again with the agreement of the standard living with a viable growth.
      It is not the supply and demand. It is rather the circuitry of wealth under the spells of the lower living standard that diminishing demand is being part of the deflationary measure. If the accumulated wealth became saturated, then it means the lower living standard that made the demand finite like lesser demand in loan of dollars in ECB.
      I am certain I am not being introspective; I may twist the theory a little; but the proof of the lower living standard in Europe made it plausible.
      May the Buddha bless you?

  3. CommentedProcyon Mukherjee

    The growth story of developing nations like India is still heavily tilted towards demographics, the gains in absolute basis of measurement therefore is no measure for progress. For example if one goes by the data given in the seminal paper ‘This Time is Different’, one would notice how on relative basis GDP of India as a percentage of world GDP had diminished over time; this relative measure of progress shows that in 1940s in pre-independence era India had higher share of world GDP than now. Christine Lagard’s basic view is right but the bulk of world’s capital stock still chases returns that can only be attained in matured developed nations where management and organization is far advanced to render superior value and not the other way round.

    Procyon Mukherjee

  4. CommentedKen Peterson

    African poverty:

    Assuming a planetary economy extant over the past 200 years and an exponential growth rate of 3%, we have a doubling every 25 years or 8 doublings during our history.
    Considering the metaphorical chessboard and current world conditions, some things have hit the limits of growth.
    Ignoring all the papers, books, and seminars created by the intelligentsia of academia, a moments reflection by a fool reveals the limits of exponential growth.
    Facing the inevitable, Africa might be a good place to try out sustainable economics.

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