CAMBRIDGE – An American traveler in Paris or Berlin is continually struck by how high prices are relative to those in the United States. A hotel room, a simple lunch, or a man’s shirt all cost more at today’s exchange rate than they would in New York or Chicago. To bring the cost of those goods and services down to the level in the US would require the euro to fall relative to the dollar by about 15%, to around $1.10.
It is easy to jump from this arithmetic to the conclusion that the euro is overvalued, and that it is likely to continue the decline that began last December. But that conclusion would be wrong. Looking ahead, the euro is more likely to climb back to the $1.60 level that it reached in 2008.