Friday, October 24, 2014
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欧洲的赢家和输家

柏林— 已经腾飞的国家不会一夜回到解放前,但这正是德国最近所发生的事情。不管在足球方面还是政治方面,德国都陷入了不恰当的自大和否认的怪圈。德国自视为欧洲一切事务的准绳——从欧锦赛到欧盟,这纯属自欺欺人。

就在德国被意大利阻挡在欧锦赛决赛大门的同一晚,总理默克尔也在布鲁塞尔欧元区领导人峰会上撞到了她个人权力的南墙。自两年前欧元危机爆发以来,德国的政治路线让它成了孤家寡人,默克尔在意大利、西班牙和法国找不到一位盟友。

事实上,默克尔别无选择,只能让步并同意欧盟新财政契约的深刻变化——放松对危机国家及其银行的再融资。德国的“没有对等表现和控制,就不给钱”立场已经破产,当天早晨所进行的激烈讨价还价正好与默克尔的如意算盘背道而驰。德国联邦议会尚未在当天晚些时候点头批准,财政契约便已经被阉割得不成模样了。

不过,就修正欧元区金融危机这一点而言,布鲁塞尔所达成的协议绝对称不上是一次突破,因为它并未改变狭隘的危机管理逻辑。它没有给出任何克服南欧危机的战略,这意味着欧元区威胁警报并未消除。

不过,从政治上讲,该协议称得上一场小型革命,因为它改变了欧元区内部的权力平衡:德国很强大,但并未强大到可以完全抛下欧洲其他主要大国独断专行的程度。与德国意见针锋相对的决定并不是没有可能。

显然,人们对德国人吃瘪无不幸灾乐祸,只是在板着脸孔大谈团结时还略作伪装。德国给欧元区开出的援助政策——以及随之而来的紧缩、大规模失业和经济萧条——给南欧带来的政治伤害还为完全展现。

如果默克尔本就希望在布鲁塞尔达成协议,那么结果将标志着欧元区危机政策的基本转变,其本人也将展现成功政治家的风采。但最终结果是布鲁塞尔峰会成了一次对德国的大胜,坚决否决德国政策极大地削弱了后者在欧盟的影响力。显然如此:德国在欧洲央行的影响力已然极大地减弱了;德国财政部长不再是欧元集团首脑;而现在,我们有迎来了布鲁塞尔灾难!

但不管德国的惨败是多么大快人心,人们仍不能对它掉以轻心。首先,德国所要求的东西并非一无是处:中期财政整合的迫切需要和旨在增加危机国家竞争力的结构性改革的需要不会就此消失。不过,同样重要的还有减轻经济失衡以及提振增长的欧洲政策合作。

其次,德国右派的政治偏执正在与日俱增:恐怕人人都在渴望德国的钱;我们的盎格鲁-撒克逊合作伙伴的真正目标是激活我们;金融市场在德国将其所有财富都用于投资、因而其经济成功陷入危险之前是不会善罢甘休的。德国被反对者“出卖给了敌人”,“优质”生产资本被再一次出卖给了“劣质”的投机资本。在一些德国报纸的评论版上,反资本主义带着新面目卷土重来,其内容不过是脱离欧洲甚至西方。

当然,尽管德国右派可能变得更加民族主义,但历史不会简单重复,因为当今德国已不同以往,其政治环境也有了变化。军官如此,处于欧盟中心地位又具有强大经济实力的日渐狐疑的德国可能严重威胁到欧洲一体化进程。而这样做尽管会牺牲德国自身的利益,但实际政治行动并非总是理性的,特别是在危机当头的时候。

顺便说一句,法国也面临着同样的局面,只不过与德国不同的是,法国很难转让政治主权,而我们德国人一切向钱看。威胁欧洲工程的思想/政治阻力同样巨大。

事实上,如果最新峰会的后果是法国与德国各自建立针锋相对的阵营(尽管表面上仍然大谈团结),那我们还是忘记欧洲吧。没有运转良好的法德轴心,欧洲工程断无可能成功。

法德双方都必须决定要不要欧洲——我说的是完全的经济和政治一体化。经济方面,它们必须选择要共同责任和转移联盟还是要货币的再国家化。政治方面,它们必须选择赋权给共同政府和议会还是回归完全主权。我们所能确定的是,正如一个人怀不上孩子,现有的乱局是无法维持下去的。

去年11月,德国联邦议院多数派领导人沃克尔·考德(Volker Kauder)大言不惭地说“欧洲突然开始说德语了。”他错了。正如西班牙(而不是德国)仍是欧洲足球的基准,说欧洲人讲蹩脚英语还差不多。从捍卫欧洲工程的角度来说,这样要好得多。

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  1. CommentedAnton Könen


    What kind of Europe are you talking about, Mr. Fischer? Reading your article i feel demoted to times in which Mao Zedong, Stalin or Honecker were preaching the amenities of communist system while people were starving do death or beeing hunted, arrested and even killed for their political conviction in China, UDSSR and DDR.

    Without any doubt, there are winner in your kind of Europe, but for sure, this is not the people you would propably call the mob. Siemens, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and other internationaly working companies do profit for sure from your Europe. Those do not have to be convinced from your system, they are already living it to the full.
    Why don´t you just explain them, the stupid mob, where they can find their personal advantages of your kind of Europe. Just tell millions of unemployed in Germany, Spain or Greece the advantage of being unemployed. Explain 600.000 people, most elderly, the advantage of being cut off from elelcrical power because the could not pay their bills. Explain the advantage of paying cash in advance for his medicine to a Greek invalid or even beter talk to a spanish youngster about the advantage of having no Job, no perspective in future, no thinking about an own familiy in own flats. An endless list of problems which obiously do not exist in your kind of Europe. Strange, that people do not like your Europe, isn´t it?

    Your Europe did have more than 10 years of time to proof that it works, and even better than other system. The result is desastrous. Horrendous national debts all over Europe, highest unemployment rate since 15 years. Political and social disruption as we did not see after WWII. No ideas from policy but never ending and consistently louder nascent cry for more money, common accountability for debts which appears to be more and more helpless. What kind of bold froud that is! Not even 1 single job has been created with, in the meantime more than 2000 Billion Euros, freshly printed. This money has just been used to clear manipulated balances of ailing Banks. 200 Billion for a sick Hypo Real Estate, 80 Billion for spanish Bancia s.o. Those measures are not only of no use, they are cynical. Supporting „Systemic Institutions“ is the official term. What kind of systems do we want to support, those which creat mass uneployment and social pauperisation.
    As other dogmatists before, you forgotl the people, who have to fill political systems,however natured, with life. You don´t explain or discuss, you only claim political statements while ignoring reality in the most arrogant mannor.

    Nowadays europe´s nations are more hostile to each other than ever before. Why don´t you just explain nationals from Germany or France, why they have to account for the missmanagement of Spanish or Greek Banks, well considering that the general public of those countries do not have anything to do with that. Generally this seems to be the core problem in your personal european ideology-people have been degraded to functional units, their rights to live has been reduced to just participating in your political map exercise.
    The kind of politician you are,frequently make me frigthen of an upcoming war. The ideological, nearly dictatorial way how eligible fears and sorrows of people are being ignored is provoking instead of unifying. Functionaries of economy and policy are obviously not capable to learn even from the near history. I am afraid, Mr. Fischer, your „Economic Europe“ is already lying in a kind of politic palliative care unit, no hope anymore. You just forgot the people.

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