Tuesday, July 22, 2014
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阿根廷的能源难题

布宜诺斯艾利斯—总统费尔南德斯以严厉的用词宣布没收西班牙雷普索尔公司(Repsol)在所持有的阿根廷能源生产商YPF的几乎全部股份,这在全世界拉响了法律警报。事实上,在能源部门没有大规模投资流入的情况下,这并不能解决阿根廷的能源问题。

雷普索尔于1999年收购了YPF的完全控股权;2008年2月,它将部分股权转让给了彼得森集团(Petersen Group),如今,后者持股量为25%。雷普索尔现在则持有57%的股份,其余部分由股市投资者持有。阿根廷政府将没收51%的股份,这样普雷索尔将只持有6%。

在2008年的股票发售中,两大主要股东同意将至少90%的未来利润以现金股利的形式发放。这一决定是为了让彼得森集团能够偿付对银行和普雷索尔债务。在股票收购中,彼得森集团并没有付钱,而是赊账向普雷索尔进行了收购。

如此分红在世界石油产业中可谓鹤立鸡群。过去十年中,YPF的石油储备量大幅下降(其他大部分在阿根廷开展业务的石油公司也是如此),因为石油勘探投资被大幅削减了。

与此同时,天然气占据了能源消费的51%,石油占32%,煤、可再生及水电核电占17%。从全世界看,天然气只占能源总消费量的四分之一左右——比如在美国为27%,在邻国巴西为9%。阿根廷汽车使用压缩天然气为燃料的比例世界最高;家庭也大量使用天然气;大部分电力由天然气提供;石化行业也建立在天然气的基础上。

当然,在某些别的国家(卡塔尔、阿尔及利亚、阿联酋、伊朗和俄罗斯),天然气也占据能源消费的一半甚至六成以上。但它们的情况与阿根廷有着绝大不同:它们无不拥有至少够用70—100年的储量。而阿根廷作为高度依赖天然气的国家,其储量却在日渐减少,大概只相当于八年的产量。

用进口弥补储量的下降——大约一半的天然气储量和五分之一石油储量已经被用掉了——意味着每年要花去3000亿美元以上的成本。事实上,在经历了20年廉价充足的能源供应(甚至还有余量可供出口),新的昂贵、稀缺、进口能源周期已经开始。石油产量自1998年以来下降了三分之一,天然气产量自2004年以来下降了15%。

如今,阿根廷最大的挑战是通过大力投资陆上和大西洋矿井勘探保持自给自足。与此同时,阿根廷还必须改变消费模式,更多地依靠水电、核能和风能。非常规资源潜力无限,但无不成本极高,需要在未来五年内每年拿出GDP的3%进行投资。

极有可能的是,在短期内,增加液化天然气和其他冉柳的进口将继续增加变革压力。去年,外部能源赤字已达30亿美元以上,今年可能会继续翻番。

一个重要的问题是,阿根廷政府将YPF51%的股权国有化的决定是不是石油和天然气生产重回自给自足的最佳办法,是不是吸引所需资本来进行常规能源储量勘探开发的最佳办法。阿根廷也拥有生产非常规天然气资源的无穷潜力,因为它拥有仅次于中国和美国的世界第三大储量。但是,这些资源和阿根廷的常规资源一起等待着开发,而不会自己冒出来。

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  1. CommentedDiego Arrigorriaga

    There are two questions, equally important to the one discussed by the author, that remain unresponded: will Argentina pay a fair price for Repsol’s assets? And why is Argentina specifically targeting Repsol’s stake in YPF, leaving local investors untouched?

    Argentina is selectively acting against foreign investors. This will make it harder to attract the funds that are necessary to solve its energy problem and will make the expropriation useless.

  2. CommentedJonathan Lam

    Gamesmith94134: Argentina’s Energy Dilemma

    The dilemma for Argentina to nationalize 51% of YPF’s share while Alieto Guadagni compare the high potential for production of non-conventional gas resources like China and US. In assumption, with less of the foreigner’s investment to exploration and research on the secondary energy like gas Argentina would not produce more gas or oil. Perhaps, the alternative for Argentina is to yield control of YPF from Spain’s Repsol YPF SA (REP) in order to cut its share on the dependency on oil it produces.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-25/fernandez-taps-ypf-nostalgia-as-takeover-boosts-flagging-support.html

    “Argentina is once again going to take control of a strategic resource that no other nation in the world has given up,” Interior Minister Florencio Randazzo said in a statement yesterday, citing Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela as examples of countries with state-run energy companies.
    Apparently, Kirchner’s surprise takeover of YPF SA (YPFD) is likely to boost her flagging popularity as Argentines rally behind the re-nationalization of the country’s biggest oil producer; and she has a lot of supports of its populace, About 62 percent of the public backs Fernandez’s move to reclaim YPF, according to an April 19-20 survey by Poliarquia Consultores that was published in newspaper La Nacion. The poll of 1,115 people had a margin of error of 3 percentage points; except for the Spain sovereignty bond buyer pigeonholed on the Spain’s equitable share of Repsol YPF SA(REP).

    Could it be another dilemma for Repsol to pull another division for gas if there are investors eager for an exploration? Or, some are confused with nurture for business with investment with buy to own. With much of my Repsol shares in failing price I am proud to support Repsol and Kirchner instead of being eat away by investor or invader with his fiat money to crack up Repsol with their 51% of it. Perhaps, it is time to invest for another bid of gas Argentina can produce, and it is not a race to China or US in alternative resources for energy. Finally, It is an reminder that commodity prices for food went up three fold in the last ten years, green industry may just a smoking gun, mirrored the ClubMed to tourism for the third world countries in doing the wrong thing; just look at the PIIGS. Then, the requirement of annual investment of about 3% of GDP over next five year can be an alternative in social programs to revive the other industries or food programs for the global consumption.

    If Spain fails to bundle the sovereignty debt or the Green industry teeters, I would blame Kirchner. Can’t I?

    May the Buddha bless you?

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