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The Year Ahead 2018

不受约束的习近平?

普罗旺斯埃克斯—中国再一次击败了人们的预期。国家主席、中共总书记习近平被广泛认为会在10月份中国十九大选举新领导班子时面临其上台后最严峻的考验。尽管习近平肯定会赢得第二个五年任期,但人们认为,如果他不指定接班人的话,将受到强烈反对。但他果真没有指定接班人——而反对并没有兑现。

原因很简单:习近平早有准备。自2012年掌权以来,他一直对公民社会进行打压,并发动了一轮后毛泽东时代难以想象的镇压。他还实施了大规模反腐运动,这约束甚至消灭了潜在政治对手,从而使他能够迅速巩固权力。

今年早些时候,国安人员诱捕了大陆出生的香港富豪肖建华,让他担任针对高级领导人的证人,此后,习近平追求更大威权的剩余阻力基本销声匿迹。尽管如此,为了在十九大前进一步巩固地位,一位被视为可能的接班人的在任政治局委员突然在7月因涉腐被捕。

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