Ceramic model of bag of money Ceramic bag of money/Pixabay

The Year Ahead 2016



那么该如何抵御需求疲软的影响?理论上低利率应该能促进投资和创造就业机会。但在实践中,如果债务负担意味着消费需求持续疲软,新投资的实际回报可能会因此而崩溃。瑞典经济学家克努特·维克塞尔( Knut Wicksell)在一个世纪前定义的中性利率——简而言之,就是使经济回归充分就业以及稳定通货膨胀所需的利率——甚至可能是负的。这也说明了央行为何会痴迷于量化宽松这类非常规货币政策。但这些政策究竟能否刺激国内投资和消费,充其量也只是有些含糊不清的证据。


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  1. Trump visits China Thomas Peter-Pool/Getty Images

    China’s New World Order?

    • Now that Chinese President Xi Jinping has solidified his position as China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, he will be able to pursue his vision of a China-led international order.

    • But if China wants to enjoy the benefits of regional or even global hegemony in the twenty-first century, it will have to prove itself ready to accept the responsibilities of leadership.
  2. Paul Manafort Alex Wong/Getty Images

    The Fall of the President’s Men

    • There can no longer be any doubt that Donald Trump is the ultimate target of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s sweeping investigation of alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. 

    • But even if Mueller doesn’t catch Donald Trump in a crime, the president will leave much human and political wreckage behind.
  3. Painted portraits of Chinese President Xi Jinping and late communist leader Mao Zedong Greg Baker/Getty Images

    When China Leads

    For the last 40 years, China has implemented a national strategy that, despite its many twists and turns, has produced the economic and political juggernaut we see today. It would be reckless to assume, as many still do in the US, Europe, and elsewhere, that China’s transition to global preeminence will somehow simply implode, under the weight of the political and economic contradictions they believe to be inherent to the Chinese model.