Ceramic model of bag of money Ceramic bag of money/Pixabay

The Year Ahead 2016

全球货币乱局

新德里——2015年行将结束,全球却只有少数地区取得了强劲增长。在这个发达国家和新兴市场国家都急需快速增长以保持国内稳定的年月,这一状况堪称危险。它反映了各种因素,包括先进工业国的低生产率增长,大萧条遗留的债务负担,以及对新兴市场出口导向型增长模式的重估。

那么该如何抵御需求疲软的影响?理论上低利率应该能促进投资和创造就业机会。但在实践中,如果债务负担意味着消费需求持续疲软,新投资的实际回报可能会因此而崩溃。瑞典经济学家克努特·维克塞尔( Knut Wicksell)在一个世纪前定义的中性利率——简而言之,就是使经济回归充分就业以及稳定通货膨胀所需的利率——甚至可能是负的。这也说明了央行为何会痴迷于量化宽松这类非常规货币政策。但这些政策究竟能否刺激国内投资和消费,充其量也只是有些含糊不清的证据。

另一种刺激需求的诱人方式来是增加政府基础设施支出。但在发达国家中那些常规的基础建设投资都早已做好。虽然每个人都知道有需要去维修或更换现有的基础设施(美国的桥梁设施是一个很好的例子),但大规模开支分配将提升公众对加税的焦虑,反而导致家庭储蓄增加,企业投资减少。

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