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The Year Ahead 2016

抓住数字浪潮

纽约—技术变化对公司来说永远是一种挑战。但是,我们在2015年再一次看到,此前从未如今次那样发生得如此迅速,规模如此巨大。创新席卷了从重工业到服务业的几乎每一个行业,正在改变竞争局面,最先进的公司——而不是最大最老牌的公司——成为佼佼者。

对老牌公司来说,被取代的威胁是实实在在的。标普500成分公司的平均上榜时间从1935年的90年下降到今天的不到18年。破坏性新“选手”,比如颠覆出租车行业的Uber,是难缠的竞争者,常常通过向消费者更多让利撬动市场份额。这是竞争加剧的大趋势的一部分,根据麦肯锡全球研究所的最新研究,它可能在十年之内将全球税后利润占全球GDP的比重从今天的近10%拉低到7.9%。

技术对竞争的影响主要来自数字平台和网络效应的力量。新数字平台让边际成本(新生产一单位产品或服务的成本)下降到几乎为零。比如,增加一位谷歌地图用户的成本可以忽略不计,因为这项服务依靠已经储存在用户手机中的GPS方位数据。这让谷歌能以令人难以置信的速度扩大规模,然后利用这一规模(以及拥有单一平台的便利)渗透到相邻领域,比如音乐(谷歌市场)、支付(谷歌钱包)和文字处理(谷歌文档)。通过这种方式,所有企业都可以迅速崛起挑战看似无关行业的老牌选手。

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