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Syria’s Shattered Mosaic

Oct 7, 2016 John Andrews

Thanks to support from Russia and Iran, Bashar al-Assad’s regime no longer faces collapse – and thanks to support from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, Assad’s various opponents continue to hold large swaths of territory. When will the war end, and how will the outcome shape the regional and global politics?

At some point, Syria’s civil war – now in its sixth year – will end. But how? As Abba Eban, Israel’s foreign minister during the Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973, once said: “History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives.”

Sadly, the actors in the Syrian tragedy have yet to reach that point. Thanks to support from Russia and Iran, Bashar al-Assad’s regime no longer faces collapse. Thanks to support from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, Assad’s various opponents continue to hold large swaths of territory. And though the Islamic State (ISIS), sworn enemy not just of Assad but of all regimes, is losing ground, it remains powerful – and is demonstrating an alarming capacity to incite terrorist attacks in both Europe and the United States.

The military stalemate is mirrored by a political and diplomatic deadlock. Talks in Geneva have been an exercise in verbose frustration. A ceasefire painstakingly negotiated between the US and Russia in September ended in horrific bloodshed: on September 19, a United Nations humanitarian convoy was destroyed, either by Russian or Syrian jets (America’s accusation) or by rebel ground-fire (Russia’s assertion).

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Emanuel Müller Oct 10, 2016

The international community (U.S.A., E.U and monarchical friends) appears to be at odds with the asian community (Syria, Iran, Irak, Turkey, Russia, China, India).
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Ajay Gupta Oct 10, 2016

This article continues to peddle the superficial narrative - whereas the core issues of control over energy sources and supply line are ignored. Other than Turkey, that has visceral fear of the Kurds, and Iran that has mortal hatred of the Arab Sheikdoms, Israel for its existential survival, all others are only interested in oil. This is the curse of the abundance of natural resources in a non democratic societies. It shows the moral vacuousness of the US and UK. Quoting Blair ruined whatever scholarship the article had.
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Cary Fraser Oct 9, 2016

An unfortunate reminder of the Biblical injunction: - They that sow the wind, shall reap the whirlwind - and the culprits are many. The accommodation of religious diversity that had shaped Ottoman rule has largely disappeared and tragedy has ensued. Secular modernity has mutated into the monstrous!!
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j. von Hettlingen Oct 9, 2016

John Andrews uses the right word to describe Syria, at least how it was before the war broke out - a mosaic. It was a country consisting of a number of divese ethnic affiliations and various religious beliefs. Like a mosaic picture made with small coloured pieces, the country was beautiful - fertile plains, high mountains, deserts and sea. After five years of intensive, brutal fighting, the mosaic is "shattered" beyond repair. Even if it can be restored, it will never look the same again.
The question about when the war in Syria will end, the author cites Abba Eban, Israel’s foreign minister during the Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973: “History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives.” But it may not be case in Syria, because it is being fought on three levels - national, regional and global. Various commentators have criticised Obama for doing too little a few years ago, saying Russia might not have been as dominant in the Middle East as it is today. But they should let history judge Obama. Shlomo Ben-Ami former Israeli foreign minister should wait and see whether Putin's "strategic achievments" are sustainable. For the moment it looks as if "not only did military intervention prevent Assad’s regime from being overthrown; the preservation of Russia’s Tartus and Latakia bases 'will allow him to challenge US and NATO control in the eastern Mediterranean.'"
Before Russia intervened on Assad's behalf the Kurds were the biggest winner of the civil war in Syria. Their territorial gains enabled them to dream big - statehood - raising Turkey's heckles. For years Erdogan sees the Syrian Kurds - who are said to be close to the Turkish PKK - as a bigger threat. Barak Barfi criticises the US for courting the Kurds in its fight against ISIS, "and thus to minimize its own direct contribution in the conflict," while alienating the Turks. But Ankara had been reluctant to defeat ISIS. Besides the Kurds are the best and reliable forces on the ground.
What started as a civil war between the Assad regime and its opposition morphed into a proxy war. Regional rivals - Iran, a country of Shia Islam and Saudi Arabia, which sees itself as the defender of Sunni Islam - became involved and backed the opposing sides of the war. A sectarian conflict broke out across the Muslim world, pitting Sunni Muslims against their Shia peers in Bahrain and Yemen. Territorial control in Syria had changed many times during the war, with long periods of attrition, fueled by its backers. When Assad appeared to be losing over a year ago, Russia joined the fray and helped him regain some lost areas, emboldening him to contemplate retaking the whole country. But the US-backed Sunni supporters of the myriad of Syrian rebels are determined to overthrow the Assad regime, and set to fight to the bitter end.
The Sykes-Picot Agreement is seen as the source of today's many conflicts in the Middle East. Many in the region view artificial states as a colonial legacy - an attempt to "unify the countries that appear on the map" even though they share little in common. Critics like Haass point out how senseless the agreement is, because “ties to region, religion, tribe, ethnicity, and/or ideology have in many cases superseded national identities.” Ben-Ami is right about supporting Russia's "option" - a "federal system" or a partition of the country. "Assad’s Alawites could control territory in the West, running from Latakia in the north to Damascus in the south, and an autonomous Syrian-Kurdish region could be established in the northeast, with the rest of the country being left to the Sunni opposition.” The US doesn't embrace the idea of a "Balkanisation" of Syria. Turkey too, as it fears the demands of its Kurdish population to break away.
Given what the Assad regime has done, he should be indicted for war crimes. Perhaps for this reason he wants to continue fighting, to justify his cause that combats "terrorists," allowing him to stay in power and enjoy immunity. The other alternative is for him to go into exile in Russia, in exchange for his stepping down. It is not exactly an appealing idea. That the Arab League rejected a tribunal for Syria reflected their hypocrisy and flagrant disregard for human rights, because they fear that such a tribunal could open the door to investigations into their own domestic abuses.
How realistic is “such a coalition – involving, say, Germany, India, Japan, Brazil, and Egypt – could increase the pressure on […] Assad” to pursue negotiations seriously, “by convincing Russian President Vladimir Putin,” Assad’s main backer, “that his prestige is on the line.” Germany is the only country with a legitimate reason for ending the war in Syria. Other countries have their own domestic - financial and political - problems, that they will hardly be interested in resolving a conflcit so far away. Indeed, peace in the the Muslim world can only be achieved with a reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and a two-state-solution. The decades-long, unresolved Israel-Palestinian conflict, was the source of Osama bin-Laden's inspiration to wage jihad.
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Muhammad NaIya Oct 9, 2016

Yes Syria affects us all but not as Tony Blair saw it no. "“We should think of the Middle East and Islam as being in a process of transition: the Middle East toward rule-based and religiously tolerant societies, and Islam toward its rightful place as a faith of progress and humanity.”
The cavil war in Syria has little to do with Islam but everything to do with the Sectarians aided and abetted by the US and her allies. The root of this seems to be that the Sunni Arab Tribes detest an Alawite ruling a majority Sunni nation especially after the US overthrew Saddam Hussein in Iraq. That forms the reason and logic of the instigated sectarian blood-letting in Syria. The US perhaps more for economic considerations allowed herself to be blindsided. A very similar situation started in Bahrain but the US turned a blind eye to the ruthless truncation of the democratic aspirations of the Bahrainis. In Yemen another blood-letting using US supplied weaponry, systems and Intel is killing hundreds of civilians. Of course given the history of US actions after 9/11 with all the renditions, Guantanamo, Abu Ghuraib and unnamed CIA spots, it is no suprise that today Syria is a just another cannon fodder to the Sectarianism backed and srmed by the US in the MENA.
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