Woman in Burma selling fruit Woman in Burma selling fruit/Pixabay

The Year Ahead 2016



事实上,学术研究表明制裁的成功非常有限。日内瓦研究所(Graduate Institute in Geneva)的托马斯·比尔斯特克(Thomas Biersteker)估算,制裁起作用的情况只占20%左右。牛津大学的亚当·罗伯茨(Adam Roberts)认为,“几乎没有可以明确认定为成功的制裁,除非你将其他因素合在一起考虑会有一些。”比如,美国和欧盟对缅甸的制裁也许促进了该国决定开放经济、采取渐进式政治改革,但也许害怕过度依赖中国才是更重要的因素。


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  1. Adam Michnik Gallo Images/Getty Images

    Europe’s New Eastern Question

    • The European Union has been shaken by Brexit, Donald Trump’s election in the United States, and now political uncertainty in Germany. 

    • But the future of the EU is also being written in Poland, Hungary, Ukraine, and Russia, with profound implications for democratic institutions and regional security.

    • Trump visits China Thomas Peter-Pool/Getty Images

      China’s New World Order?

      • Now that Chinese President Xi Jinping has solidified his position as China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, he will be able to pursue his vision of a China-led international order.

      • But if China wants to enjoy the benefits of regional or even global hegemony in the twenty-first century, it will have to prove itself ready to accept the responsibilities of leadership.
    • Paul Manafort Alex Wong/Getty Images

      The Fall of the President’s Men

      • There can no longer be any doubt that Donald Trump is the ultimate target of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s sweeping investigation of alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. 

      • But even if Mueller doesn’t catch Donald Trump in a crime, the president will leave much human and political wreckage behind.