Woman in Burma selling fruit Woman in Burma selling fruit/Pixabay

The Year Ahead 2016



事实上,学术研究表明制裁的成功非常有限。日内瓦研究所(Graduate Institute in Geneva)的托马斯·比尔斯特克(Thomas Biersteker)估算,制裁起作用的情况只占20%左右。牛津大学的亚当·罗伯茨(Adam Roberts)认为,“几乎没有可以明确认定为成功的制裁,除非你将其他因素合在一起考虑会有一些。”比如,美国和欧盟对缅甸的制裁也许促进了该国决定开放经济、采取渐进式政治改革,但也许害怕过度依赖中国才是更重要的因素。


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