Woman in Burma selling fruit Woman in Burma selling fruit/Pixabay

The Year Ahead 2016

反思制裁

新加坡—如今,联合国安理会所采取的制裁措施比历史上任何时候都要多。20世纪90年代期间,最大制裁措施数量为八起;21世纪第一个十年的最高值为12;如今则为16。这些总数尚不包括欧盟和美国所实施的制裁。若将后两者包括进来,你也许会认为制裁已经证明成为促进国际和平与安全的非常有效的工具。不幸的是,事实绝非如此。

事实上,学术研究表明制裁的成功非常有限。日内瓦研究所(Graduate Institute in Geneva)的托马斯·比尔斯特克(Thomas Biersteker)估算,制裁起作用的情况只占20%左右。牛津大学的亚当·罗伯茨(Adam Roberts)认为,“几乎没有可以明确认定为成功的制裁,除非你将其他因素合在一起考虑会有一些。”比如,美国和欧盟对缅甸的制裁也许促进了该国决定开放经济、采取渐进式政治改革,但也许害怕过度依赖中国才是更重要的因素。

但制裁机制的潜在问题远不仅限于无效性。有证据表明制裁可能适得其反,比如,制裁目标可以通过控制被禁商品的黑市中饱私囊。以海地为例,1993—1994年该国遭遇石油禁运期间,军政府为黑市石油贸易提供出入与之相邻的多米尼加边境的便利。

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