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The Year Ahead 2015

俄罗斯先发制人的反革命

Jan 27, 2015 Alexander Etkind

佛罗伦萨——2014年，俄罗斯总统普京将他的国家带回到专制体制。从克里姆林到克里米亚，俄罗斯民众现在必须面对一个独裁者的贪婪、恐惧和谎言，这位独裁者在2014年摆脱了对其权力最后的限制。

在很多方面，普京的独裁都非常原始。普京的独裁基础是原始情绪，而不是苏联时代的意识形态动机。虽然普京试图借吞并克里米亚和干预东乌克兰激起民众对帝国的渴望，但这些举动实际却比夜深人静时的蒙面盗窃好不到哪去；这样的行为几乎不可能获得持久的荣誉。

与我同行的许多文化历史学家不这么认为。他们坚持认为普京政权代表俄罗斯文化传统的一种持续形式。他们认为俄国继承了某种超越革命的文化DNA，就好像某种恶性基因驱动着目前克里姆林对乌克兰的帝国主义侵略（而且，如果我们相信普京的威胁，哈萨克斯坦或许很快会成为下一个牺牲品）。还有人认为这种持续性源于民族性格。他们认为俄国人的独特个性导致他们支持普京，就像他们曾经对斯大林和罗曼诺夫表示支持。

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Shoshon Tama-Sweet Jan 28, 2015

Thank you for deflating all of the misbegotten theorists who see 2014 as an product of distant, inevitable history, rather than the actions of a very particular clientele state that has no regard for law, either at home or abroad, except as a means to entrench oligarchic power. By revealing the political logic of the Ukrainian invasion- a pre-emptive strike against a similar revolution in Moscow- you correctly situate the actions in the logic of power exercised today, instead of pandering to the false notion that Putin simply has a lot of nostalgia for the Soviet Union. The narrative of Putin has become some inflated that the people of Russia have been totally obscured in the Western Media.
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Juan Montenegro Jan 28, 2015

Not insightful at all. Sorry, but your geniune hatred of Putin cloud your opinions about his actions. There something obvious missing in your interpretation of the causes of Putin's actions in foreign policy. He is not a stupid man, so everything he has done must have an underlying reason that you are simply ignoring because of your prejudice against him. He my have had failures calculating the measure of response from western powers, but his motivation go clearly beyond simple greed.
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j. von Hettlingen Jan 27, 2015

Alexander Etkind believes Putin's dictatorship is quite different from Stalin's, although the former in recent years has sought to stoke nationalism that glorifies the latter, whitewashing the atrocities of the Stalinist regime. Putin and his cronies are said to be motivated by worldly aspirations - power and riches, while Stalin and his followers were aficionados and idealists, ready to make "self-sacrifice" for an ideology. Their achievements - despite "intolerable human cost, were real". Above all - "corruption was a crime that was punished". Indeed, the way how Putin and the self-serving oligarchs lay their hands on Russia's oil and gas, makes Stalin's "dogmatic, ascetic bureaucrats" appear virtuous.
Etkind sees Putin's annexation of Crimea and "imperialist aggression" in eastern Ukraine as a means to satisfy the "popular desire for empire", highlighting "Russians' specific nature", that "leads them to support" strong leaders. In the past they "allegedly supported Stalin and the Romanovs".
According to Etkind Putin could rely on domestic support for his revisionist ambition. In this regard he fears "Kazakhstan may soon be next". This concern is not far-fetched. Not only does Putin try to hold sway over how the country's history be portrayed, he is also trying to restore its glorious past. But he will not repeat the same mistake made by Czar Alexander II, who sold Alaska to America in 1867 for $7.2 million. He definitely does not approve Gorbachev of retreating from Europe "in an effort to end the Cold War". Whether he would be wise enough to leave Ukraine in peace, like Lenin did after signing the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918 "in exchange for peace with Germany", is a different matter.
The author also criticises the international community for turning a blind eye to the "Russian version of clientelism", marked by "kleptocracy" and "lawlessness". That the West has "acquiesced in Russia’s actions in Ukraine" is a display of its "greed, fear, or self-deception". It has benefited from Russians who "invest their ill-gotten gains in European and US banks and real estate, paying fat fees that have fueled profit growth for Western firms". This is history for many wealthy Russians. Since the fall of the Soviet Union the country had squandered both its oil wealth and the opportunity to "reshape itself into a country that would benefit its people" as well as to diversify its economy. With Western sanctions and falling oil prices, an end to their financial reverses is not going to happen soon. So, "Russia's pre-emptive counter-revolution" may be "brutal response". But for how long?
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Jim Nail Jan 27, 2015

Thank you! At last, a Western observer who knows what he is talking about.
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Velko Simeonov Jan 27, 2015

The only useful information to be gained from this article is that the author genuinely despises Putin. It is disappointing to see such articles being published on this otherwise fantastic site.
- jean-louis salvignol Jan 30, 2015
  
  VS, So you advocate of prior censorship for what does not suit you. Good to know.
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Sue W Jan 27, 2015

Very interesting and thoughtful, Professor. Thanks for the insight.

Incidentally, I also thank you for the reference to the Long Telegram. We stand on the shoulders of giants, indeed!
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