Man on bike in India

The Year Ahead 2016

印度的投资贫血症

坎布里奇,马萨诸塞州—自印度人民党历史性地赢得大选胜利、莫迪成为印度总理至今已经过去了18个月。印度人民党的压倒性胜利让人们热切期待饱受前任国大党政府优柔寡断困扰的印度经济能够实现腾飞。但是,在2015年行将结束之际,印度经济并未高飞。

乐观者理应感到失望,因为他们曾经有充分的希望理由。由于印度存在巨大的有形资本赤字,因此他们期待随着万事俱备的工程的重启——而新政府所强调的“印度制造”毫无疑问意味着许多新的制造业工程——投资能够水涨船高。

不幸的是,投资并没有增长。更糟糕的是,阻碍投资复苏的一些障碍仍然存在。私人部门固定资本投资占GDP之比在2011—2012年达到33.6%的峰值水平,此后一路下降到2014—2015年的低点28.7%。这一颓势是全国性的,所有大邦在此期间都出现了在建工程数量下降。比如,马哈拉斯特拉邦和卡纳塔克邦工程量累计下降都达到了15%左右,古吉拉特邦和泰米尔纳德邦降幅更大,超过了20%。

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