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The Year Ahead 2018

全球经济的危险复苏

发自纽约——一年前,我曾预测说2017年最具特色的方面将是不确定性,尤其是在以特朗普当选美国总统和英国公投脱欧为代表的一系列事件的助推之下。唯一可以确定的是东西似乎就是不确定——还有一个可能变得极为混乱的未来。

随后事实证明,虽然2017年算不上是特别好的一年,但还是比许多人担心的要好得多。特朗普一如预期般浮夸不定。如果你只关注他那些源源不断的推文,准会认为美国正在贸易战和核战争之间摇摆不定。特朗普可以在某一天侮辱瑞典,接下来是澳大利亚,然后是欧盟——转身又对本国的新纳粹分子表示支持。而他那帮脑满肠肥的内阁成员则忙于互相揭发各自的利益冲突,无能和十足的恶行。

然而迄今为止,尽管存在一些令人担忧的监管退步(尤其是在环境保护方面),但美国体制架构与特朗普政府的无能相结合(幸运地)意味着总统的丑陋言辞与他实际上已做成的事之间存在巨大的差距。

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