Skip to main content

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated Cookie policy, Privacy policy and Terms & Conditions

oneill68_jayk7GettyImages_arrowsquestiondirection jayk7/Getty Images

The Year Ahead 2020

What Next for Emerging Markets?

The fate of emerging markets in 2020 will depend heavily on the wayward personality of US President Donald Trump, the course of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and Chinese growth. Much could go wrong, but it will not be all doom and gloom for these economies.

LONDON – When it comes to the outlook for emerging markets in 2020, the bottom line is maddeningly simple: “It’s complicated.” There are a number of reasons for this.

For starters, we are living in extraordinary times, owing to the unpredictable personality of the current American president. As the 2020 US presidential election approaches, Donald Trump’s behavior is likely to become even more erratic than it already is.

One can only begin to imagine what steps Trump will take to improve his re-election chances. Will he engage in even more saber rattling, threatening, say, additional tariffs against China or military action against Iran? Or will he focus on keeping financial conditions accommodative in order to ward off a slowdown or recession just before the election?

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Subscribe

Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine.

https://prosyn.org/oY8NM2o;