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The Year Ahead 2018

货币政策会触发另一场金融危机吗?

发自伦敦——美国前总统里根曾经讲过一个笑话,说英语中最可怕的九个词是“I’m from the government and I’m here to help(我是政府派来帮忙的)。”换句话说,政策制定者经常会采用一些会引发更多问题的方式来应对原有的问题。

以他们对2008年金融危机的应对为例。在发达国家央行执行了近十年非常规货币政策后,35个经合组织经济体如今都实现了同步增长,金融市场正处于有史以来第二长的牛市之中。标准普尔500指数自2009年3月以来已经上涨了250%,一切都近乎表明量化宽松和超低利率等前所未有的货币政策都取得了巨大成功。

但是有三个原因值得我们去质疑这些政策的效果。首先,在此期间收入不平等状况急剧扩大。在实际负(去除通胀因素)利率和量化宽松政策通过压抑现金和政府债券持有来伤害了储户的同时,富人最常持有的股票以及其他高风险金融资产的价格却受到了这两项政策的广泛刺激。如果连政府债券等传统固定收益类投资都没有收益,那么即便是最保守的养老基金也别无选择,只能投入风险资产去推高价格,从而进一步拉大财富差距。

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