Getty Images

The Year Ahead 2018

Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Hazards

The year 2017 appears to be ending on a high note, with GDP growth in much of the world continuing to rise, marking the broadest cyclical upswing since the start of the decade. But unless policymakers seize the current opportunity and reform while they still can, the inevitable future slowdown may be closer than we think.

WASHINGTON, DC – The year 2017 appears to be ending on a high note, with GDP growth in much of the world continuing to rise, marking the broadest cyclical upswing since the start of the decade. Throughout Europe and Asia, and in the United States and Canada, growth expectations have risen, while some important emerging economies that until recently were shrinking – for example, Brazil and Russia – have resumed growth.

Several countries continue to struggle, including many fuel exporters and low-income economies suffering from civil strife or natural disasters, especially drought. But faster recovery is benefiting roughly two-thirds of the world’s population.

These developments follow years of geographically uneven, stop-and-go growth following the global crisis of 2008-2009 and the subsequent 2010-2011 rebound. As recently as early 2016, the world economy sputtered, driving the price of oil to near $25 per barrel (it is now around $60) and yielding the weakest global growth rate since the outright contraction of 2009. Thus, heading into 2018, the sense of relief among many economic policymakers is palpable.

To continue reading, please subscribe to On Point.

To access On Point, log in or register now now and read two On Point articles for free. For unlimited access to the unrivaled analysis of On Point, subscribe now.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/b3qDaXH;
  1. Donald Trump delivers his address to a joint session of Congress  Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images

    Trump’s Abominable Snow Job

    • In the 2016 US presidential election, Donald Trump presented himself as a populist who would protect America’s “forgotten” workers from the disruptions of trade and immigration and the nefarious designs of unnamed elites.

    • But, a year after assuming office, it has become abundantly clear that “America first” means workers come last.
  2. Project Syndicate

    PS Commentators’ Best Reads in 2017

    • For the first time, Project Syndicate has asked its contributors what they’ve been reading, and why. 

    • Their choices may surprise, but surely will not disappoint, readers seeking the most important books on history, politics, economics, as well as more than one novel.