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The Year Ahead 2018

短期收益,长期风险

华盛顿—2017年似乎将在备受瞩目中走向结束,世界大部GDP增长继续走强,形成自这个十年开始以来最广泛的周期性上扬。欧洲和亚洲全体,以及美国和加拿大的增长预期都有所上升,一些此前一直陷入萎缩的重要新兴经济体——如巴西和俄罗斯——也重新开始增长。

一些国家仍然举步维艰,包括许多能源出口国和饱受内乱和自然灾害(特别是旱灾)困扰的低收入经济体。但复苏的加速惠及了大约三分之二的世界人口。

在这些发展态势出现之前的多年中,2008—2009年全球危机及随后的2010—2011年反弹表现出地理不均衡的特征,增长也是走走停停。到2016年初,世界经济落入谷底,石油价格下跌到每桶25美元附近(现在为60美元),全球增长率也下降到2009年全面萎缩以来的最低水平。因此,在步入2018年之际,许多经济决策者显然感到可以喘口气了。

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