Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund IMFPhoto/Flickr

The Year Ahead 2016

2016年的转变之道

发自华盛顿特区——11月在巴黎爆发的恐怖袭击和不断涌入欧洲的难民潮不过是北非和中东地区尖锐政治对立以及经济紧张局势的最新症状。而且这些事件也不是孤立存在的。在世界其他地方也正爆发着冲突,导致近6000万人流离失所,无家可归。

此外,2015年很有可能成为有记录以来最热的一年,超强的厄尔尼诺现象在太平洋沿岸导致了大量气候灾害。而美国利率正常化进程的到来以及中国经济放缓正进一步激发全球不确定性和经济大幅波动。事实上全球贸易的增长率已经大幅下跌,与大宗商品价格的跳水一道构成了资源型经济体的危机。

全球经济如此不景气的其中一个原因是,虽然雷曼兄弟已经倒闭七年之久,但却依然无法确保金融稳定。金融部门的不堪一击依然困扰着许多国家——而金融风险正在新兴市场国家不断积聚。

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