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The Year Ahead 2018

革命中间派

伦敦—众所周知,西方政治的核心是实用主义、安静的理性(quiet reason)和演化,政治活动家借此回避极端、寻求妥协。政治中间派不相信响声震天的分裂性言论,他们对于政治世界的运行,抱有一丝傲慢的态度。

如今,他们被“修理”了。左翼和右翼民粹主义兴盛。旧规则不再适用。几年前足以让获选人身败名裂的言辞,现在成为直达选民内心的通行证。此前被视为主流的政策立场饱受讥笑,而此前的出格立场,现在变得相当合格。保持了一个世纪或更久的政治联盟因为深远的社会、经济和文化变化而分崩离析。

右翼在裂变。普遍的情绪是民族主义、反移民,常常还有保护主义,这形成了新的联盟。在英国,老工业社区的传统工党支持者和富裕的去监管派和企业主因为不喜欢世界的改变方式和“政治正确”而团结在一起。这一联盟——以及其他国家的类似形式——是否能够克服其内在的经济矛盾尚不清楚,但我不会低估共同的文化疏离感所造成的凝聚力。

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