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The Year Ahead 2018

央行的秋后算账年

发自芝加哥——自2008年以来,各发达工业国的央行已经以各种方式偏离了常规的货币政策制定方针。他们试图通过“前瞻性指引”来说服公众利率会长时间保持低位。为了实现各类目标,它们还实施了长期再融资操作,证券市场计划(Securities Markets Program)和量化宽松等多种手段。

最近众央行还引入了负利率以及——从一直处于创新前沿的日本银行开始引进的——收益曲线目标设定。另有一些中央银行采取了一些非常规但路人皆知的政策,比如直接制定汇率目标。

时至今日,在各大主要央行显然正在寻求货币政策正常化之时,我们也是时候追问一下当年为什么会采取那些非常措施以及是否有效。展望未来,我们应该问一下退出这些措施将会产生什么效果,以及它们的使用会否会带来长期性的忧患。而通过解决这些问题,中央银行家将能够更好地应对未来的危机。

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