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The Year Ahead 2018

非洲,世纪商业交易

阿比让—在专家们对2018年的全球增长做出猜测时,很少有人重点关注非洲。关注了非洲的专家,往往也强调非洲贫穷比例世界最高,大量年轻人逃离祖国寻找安全和机会。即使是最乐观的经济预测家,也总是对非洲持负面态度,言必称要实行当代马歇尔计划——不是商业合作和增长的催化剂,而是人道主义新形式。

诚然,非洲人均GDP只有每年2,000美元,受薪人口比例也为世界最低(大约20%)。持续的贫困,再加上气候变化,导致失业和半失业率高企。大部分劳动力从事着低生产率的生计,许多国家的财政能力严重依赖日益下跌的大宗商品价格。

尽管正在发生结构性转变,但速度非常缓慢。非洲只占全球制造业增加值的1.9%——这一比例几十年来不见增长。此外,非洲有12亿人口,并以每年2.6%的速度迅速增加,而年轻人口的膨胀——70%的非洲人口不到30岁——给受困于规划和管理能力不足的政府造成巨大的压力。

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