突然消失的货币流动性

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中国的流动性是多还是少,这似乎成为困扰中国经济和货币政策走向的一个难题。一方面是不断激增的外汇占款,一面却又是市场和银行间短期利率的大幅飙升,中国缘何出现这样的流动性悖论?

其实,中国的流动性存在着严重地结构性问题,流动性失衡问题十分严重。从货币存量上看,中国流动性仍比较充裕,中国信贷规模当前居全球第一,中国广义货币(M2)约为美国的1.5倍,是世界第一货币发行大国;M2与GDP之比达到2,远超过日本的1和美国的0.7。当前,中国企业信贷占GDP比重达到130%。中国社会的信贷杠杆在2008年之前的若干年一直都维持在150%的水平上,且波动幅度不大。

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