La nueva neutralidad

TOKIO – A lo largo de la Guerra Fría, la Unión Soviética usó cada amenaza e incentivo imaginable (incluida la promesa de la reunificación final) para conseguir la neutralidad de Alemania. Pero los líderes alemanes, tanto de izquierda como de derecha, de Konrad Adenauer a Willy Brandt, rechazaron todas las ofertas soviéticas. ¿Será ahora que el mercantilismo autoritario triunfará donde el comunismo fracasó?

Los países se integran a alianzas, o a entidades como la Unión Europea, porque estas aclaran los beneficios y las obligaciones que eso implica tan inequívocamente como es posible en las relaciones internacionales. Pero las relaciones de Alemania y Corea del Sur con sus aliados históricos (la OTAN y Estados Unidos, respectivamente) son ahora sujeto de una aparente transformación.

Es posible que los actuales regímenes autoritarios mercantilistas de Rusia y China consigan por medio del comercio (con inmensas compras de bienes y promesas de más por venir) lo que los soviéticos no pudieron con sobornos y amenazas. Y hablamos de comercio en una escala apabullante: las exportaciones alemanas a China crecieron desde 25.900 millones de dólares hace una década a 87.600 millones de dólares en 2011, mientras que en el mismo lapso las de Corea del Sur se incrementaron de 53.000 millones a 133.000 millones de dólares.

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