La Nuova Neutralità

TOKYO – Durante la Guerra Fredda, l’Unione Sovietica ha utilizzato tutte le intimidazioni e le lusinghe immaginabili - tra cui il premio finale della riunificazione – a favore di una Germania neutrale. Ma i leader tedeschi sia della sinistra che della destra, da Konrad Adenauer a Willy Brandt, hanno sempre respinto tutte le proposte sovietiche. Riuscirà oggi il mercantilismo autoritario laddove il comunismo ha fallito?

I paesi si riuniscono in alleanze, o in entità come l’Unione Europea, in quanto queste aggregazioni permettono che i benefici e gli obblighi, impliciti nell’adesione, siano inequivocabili come può esserlo tutto ciò che concerne le relazioni internazionali. Per la Germania e la Corea del Sud, tuttavia, i rapporti con gli alleati storici - rispettivamente la NATO e gli Stati Uniti - sembra stiano cambiando sotto i nostri occhi.

Attraverso gli ingenti acquisti di beni, e la promessa di renderli addirittura maggiori in futuro, gli odierni regimi autoritari/mercantilisti di Russia e Cina potrebbero a breve realizzare mediante il commercio quello che i Sovietici non sono riusciti ad ottenere con la corruzione e le minacce. E la dimensione di tale traffico commerciale è da mozzafiato, con le esportazioni tedesche verso la Cina in crescita da 25.9 miliardi di dollari, di dieci anni fa, a 87.6 miliardi di dollari del 2011, mentre, nel corso dello stesso periodo, le esportazioni della Corea del Sud sono aumentate da 53 miliardi a 133 miliardi di dollari.

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