Die neue Neutralität

TOKIO – Während des gesamten Kalten Krieges hat die Sowjetunion alle erdenklichen Drohungen und Anreize ins Spiel gebracht – einschließlich des ultimativen Preises einer Wiedervereinigung –, um ein neutrales Deutschlands herbeizuführen. Doch die deutschen Bundeskanzler des linken wie auch des rechten Spektrums, von Konrad Adenauer bis Willy Brandt, schlugen alle sowjetischen Angebote aus. Wird autoritärem Merkantilismus nun gelingen, woran der Kommunismus gescheitert ist?

Länder gehen Bündnisse ein, oder treten größeren Einheiten wie der Europäischen Union bei, weil diese Gruppen die Vorteile und Pflichten einer Mitgliedschaft so unmissverständlich gestalten, wie es in internationalen Beziehungen überhaupt möglich ist. Für Deutschland und Südkorea scheinen sich die Beziehungen zu historischen Bündnispartnern – zur NATO beziehungsweise zu den Vereinigten Staaten – jedoch vor unseren Augen zu verändern.

Durch das gigantische Ausmaß, in dem sie Waren kaufen, begleitet von Versprechen, dass es noch größer werden wird, könnten die autoritären/merkantilistischen Regime in Russland und China im Begriff sein, durch Handel zu erreichen, was den Sowjets mit Bestechung und Drohungen nicht gelungen ist. Und das Volumen dieses Handelsverkehrs ist atemberaubend: Belief sich der Wert der deutschen Exporte nach China vor zehn Jahren noch auf 25,9 Milliarden US-Dollar, haben sie 2011 ein Volumen von 87,6 Milliarden US-Dollar erreicht, während Südkoreas Ausfuhren im selben Zeitraum von 53 Milliarden US-Dollar auf 133 Milliarden US-Dollar gestiegen sind.

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