La nouvelle neutralité

TOKYO – Tout au long de la guerre froide, l’Union Soviétique a recouru à toutes les menaces et à toutes les incitations possibles – y compris la récompense ultime de la réunification – pour obtenir la neutralité de l’Allemagne. Mais les dirigeants allemands de droite comme de gauche, de Konrad Adenauer à Willy Brandt, ont décliné chacune des propositions soviétiques. Le mercantilisme autoritariste aurait-il réussi là où le communisme a échoué ?

Les pays rejoignent des alliances ou des entités comme l’Union Européenne, parce que ces regroupements rendent les bénéfices et les obligations de l’adhésion aussi claires que peuvent l’être les relations internationales. Pour l’Allemagne et la Corée du Sud, cependant, il semble que nous assistions en direct à une évolution dans leurs relations avec leurs alliés historiques – respectivement l’OTAN et les Etats-Unis.

Par leurs achats massifs de biens, avec la promesse d’achats plus importants à venir, les régimes autoritaires et mercantilistes en Russie et en Chine pourraient réussir à obtenir par le commerce ce que les Soviétiques ne sont pas parvenus à obtenir par la menace et la subornation. Et l’ampleur de ce commerce est à couper le souffle : les exportations allemandes vers la Chine sont passées de 25,9 milliards de dollars en une décennie à 87,6 milliards de dollars en 2011, tandis qu’au cours de la même période, les exportations sud-coréennes sont passées 53 milliards de dollars à 133 milliards de dollars.  

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