Ahora Yukos, después la economía de Rusia

Así como la familiaridad engendra desprecio, así también el éxito engendra autocomplacencia. Lamentablemente, así parece ser en Rusia, cuyo gobierno ha elegido el primer período de crecimiento económico prolongado desde la caída del comunismo -con superávit presupuestario e inversión, al parecer, de la tendencia a la fuga de capitales- para reanudar las guerras contra la oligarquía del decenio de 1990.

Atención, optimistas: la detención de Mijail Jodorkovsky -y la congelación de sus acciones en la gigantesca empresa petrolera Yukos- tendrán profundas repercusiones a largo plazo en la economía de Rusia y en las relaciones entre el mundo empresarial y el gobierno. El embrollo en torno a Yukos no provocará un chirriante parón en la economía de Rusia, porque ninguna empresa determina por sí sola el destino del país, pero no cabe duda de que se deteriorarán las perspectivas a largo plazo.

Se trata de un problema de confianza entre la comunidad empresarial y el gobierno, que ha empezado a plantearse en los últimos años. Dicho a las claras, la violación de esa reciente confianza romperá el espinazo de la economía en alza de Rusia.

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