China y su adicción a la inversión

PEKÍN – La economía de China se desaceleró inesperadamente en el segundo trimestre de este año. Igualmente inesperado fue el hecho de que la mayoría de los datos publicados desde julio sugieran que el crecimiento de China se ha estabilizado. No es una gran sorpresa que los mercados lanzaran un suspiro colectivo de alivio. Sin embargo, ¿todavía deberían estar nerviosos los inversores?

En la actualidad, el problema más grave que enfrentan las autoridades chinas es un exceso de capacidad. Por ejemplo, la capacidad de producción anual de acero crudo de China es de mil millones de toneladas; no obstante, la producción total en el año 2012 fue de 720 millones de toneladas – lo que representa una tasa de utilización de la capacidad del 72%. Más notablemente, la rentabilidad de la industria del acero fue solamente del 0,04 % en el año 2012. En efecto, la ganancia en dos toneladas de acero alcanzó una cifra que casi es suficiente para comprar una piruleta o caramelo. En lo que va de este año, la rentabilidad promedio de las 500 principales empresas de China es del 4,34%, un nivel que está 33 puntos básicos por debajo del nivel alcanzado en el año 2012.

Algunos dicen que la sobrecapacidad que China tiene hoy en día es el resultado de su exceso de inversión en el pasado. Otros atribuyen este exceso a la falta de demanda efectiva. El gobierno parece encontrarse en un punto intermedio entre estas opiniones.

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