La dipendenza della Cina dagli investimenti

PECHINO – L'economia cinese ha registrato un rallentamento imprevisto nel secondo trimestre di quest'anno. Altrettanto inaspettatamente, i dati diffusi a partire dal luglio scorso sono perlopiù concordi nell'indicare che la crescita del Paese si è stabilizzata. Com'era prevedibile, i mercati hanno tirato un sospiro di sollievo. E gli investitori? Dovrebbero forse continuare a stare sulle spine?

Attualmente, il problema più grave che devono affrontare le autorità cinesi è quello della capacità eccedente. Per fare un esempio, la capacità produttiva annua di acciaio grezzo della Cina è stimabile in un miliardo di tonnellate, ma la sua produzione totale nel 2012 è stata di 720 milioni di tonnellate, che corrisponde a un indice di utilizzazione degli impianti pari al 72%. Più sorprendentemente ancora, la redditività dell'industria dell'acciaio è stata soltanto dello 0,04% nel 2012. Di fatto, l'utile su due tonnellate di acciaio bastava appena per comprare un lecca-lecca. Quest'anno, la redditività media delle 500 aziende più importanti della Cina è stata finora del 4,34 %, in calo di 33 punti base rispetto al 2012.

Alcuni dicono che l'odierna capacità eccedente della Cina sia il risultato di un passato sovrainvestimento. Altri la attribuiscono a una mancanza di domanda effettiva. Il governo, invece, sembra collocarsi a metà tra queste due posizioni.

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