中国的投资依赖

北京—今年二季度,中国经济出人意料地放缓了。同样出人意料的是,7月以来的大部分公布的大部分数据表明中国的增长已经稳定下来。毫不奇怪,市场同时大舒一口气。但投资者应该继续保持紧张吗?

目前中国当局所面临的最严重的问题是产能过剩。比如,中国粗钢年产能为十亿吨,但2012年总产量只有7.2亿吨——产能利用率为72%。更引人注目的是2012年钢铁业利润率只有0.04%。事实上,生产量吨钢所获得的利润只能买一根棒棒糖。今年截至目前中国前500家公司平均利润率为4.34%,比2012年下降33个基点。

有人说今天的产能过剩来自过去的过度投资。也有人认为产能过剩是因为有效需求不足。政府的观点似乎是两者的折中。

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