中国的下一场火

北京—今年早些时候,关于中国马上就要因为房地产市场崩溃或地方政府债务违约而爆发金融崩溃的传闻日嚣尘上。但是,最近几个月来,中国经济趋向稳定,已无多少人怀疑中国有能力在今年保持GDP增长7%以上。中国政府有充足的政策干预空间,因此如此转折并不令人奇怪。但金融清算的时刻只是被暂停了,而没有被消除。

在一开始敲响警钟的根本问题——包括房地产泡沫、地方政府债务、影子银行活动迅速扩张、公司杠杆率高企等——仍没有解决。在这些问题中,对中国经济和金融稳定最紧迫的威胁是高借贷成本、非金融企业利润低下以及企业杠杆率畸高的组合问题。

根据中国社科院的一项研究,截至2012年末,中国非金融企业债务/GDP之比为113%。标准普尔公司(Standard & Poor’s)认为,一年后,这些企业的总债务将达到14.2万亿美元,超过美国未偿还债务规模(13.1万亿美元),使中国成为世界上第一大企业债发行国。

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