重振中国再平衡

北京—中国正站在十字路口.在经历了三十年的前所未有的快速GDP增长后,中国又无与伦比地抵御了全球经济危机。但它也维持了严重的经济失衡,并且威胁到了它实现步入高收入行列的能力。问题在于,面临来自高风险影子银行活动和沉重的地方政府债务负担的金融动荡的挑战,中国领导人是否有政策空间让经济走上更可靠的轨道。

全球经济危机爆发后,中国似乎走上了完成这一再平衡的轨道。其经常项目盈余从2007年占GDP的10%下降到2012年的2.6%,并且自1998年以来第一次出现了大规模资本账户赤字。此外,2012年中国外汇储备只增加了987亿美元,而在2007—2011年间平均每年都要增长4350亿美元以上。这意味着人民币汇率升值压力将减小。

但是,去年中国的失衡又卷土重来。2013年贸易盈余可能突破2500亿美元;其资本账户盈余在前三季度突破了2000亿美元;其外汇储备激增5097亿美元。与此同时,经常项目盈余的下降(以占GDP比重衡量)可能是因为投资-收入赤字增加的结果。此外,尽管发达经济体的复苏提振了出口,但持续的产能过剩加上家庭消费增长较2012年放缓导致投资增长降到了过去11年以来的最低水平(尽管依然算得上强劲)。

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