Umbrellas in China Joe Penniston/Flickr

中国的三角困境

发自北京——诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·蒙代尔指出一个经济体能且只能维持三个关键特性(货币政策独立性,固定汇率和跨境自由流动)中的两个。而中国当前正奋力同时实现这三者——但这种做法越来越难以掌控。

粗看之下,这种说法似乎不太正确。考虑到中国人民银行在过去三十年间绝大多数时间都能维持其货币政策独立性,并对人民币的汇率实施积极管理,人们也会自然而然地推断中国队资本流动给予了严格管制。但事实上,中国早在20多年前已经放开了面向本国的外国直接投资,自那以后也已对大部分资本账户松了绑。

中国试图控制跨境资本流动的努力从来都收效甚微。在1990年代的亚洲金融危机期间,中国只得采取极为严苛的手段防止资本外流。在本世纪初那几年,投资者们赌人民币升值,在2004~2006年间又押注资产价格升值,导致短期资本开始流入中国。自从人民币国际化在2009年启动之后,汇率投机和套利交易也因此大幅增加。

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