Taming the China Bears

China’s growth slowdown and mounting financial risks have spurred a wave of pessimism, with economists worldwide warning of an impending crash. But these predictions are largely based on historical precedents and universal indicators against which China, with its unique economic features, simply cannot accurately be judged.

BEIJING – The market is always in search of a story, and investors, it seems, think they have found a new one this year in China. The country’s growth slowdown and mounting financial risks have spurred a growing wave of pessimism, with economists worldwide warning of an impending crash.

But dire predictions for China have abounded for the last 30 years, and not one has materialized. Are today’s really so different?

The short answer is no. Like the predictions of the past, today’s warnings are based on historical precedents and universal indicators against which China, with its unique economic features, simply cannot be judged accurately.

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