驳中国崩溃论

北京—市场总是在寻找故事,而投资者似乎认为今年在中国找到了一个新故事。中国增长减速和金融风险积累让越来越多的人感到悲观,全球经济学家警告可能马上发生崩溃。

但对中国的悲观预测在过去30年来早已见怪不怪,没有一个成为现实。今天的预测真的会不同吗?

简单的答案是否定的。和过去的预测一样,今天的警告基于不利于中国的历史先例和普通指标,而中国的经济特征是独一无二的,因此这样的预测不可能准确。

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