Colmatar o vazio de liderança global

SEUL – Terá o mundo entrado numa nova era de caos? A política indecisa dos Estados Unidos em relação à Síria parece indicar que assim é. Na verdade, o amargo legado das invasões do Iraque e do Afeganistão, seguidas da crise financeira de 2008, provocaram nos Estados Unidos um sentimento de relutância em usar o seu poder militar, inclusivamente quando são ultrapassadas as “linhas vermelhas”, e também uma aparente renitência em suportar quaisquer ónus de maior para manterem a sua posição de liderança global. Contudo, se a América já não está disposta a liderar, quem ocupará o seu lugar?

Os líderes da China demonstraram não ter interesse numa liderança global activa, rejeitando abertamente os apelos no sentido de se tornarem um "participante responsável" nos sistemas políticos e económicos internacionais. Entretanto, embora a Rússia possa desejar manter a ilusão de que é uma potência global, ultimamente, parece estar principalmente interessada, sempre que possível, em dificultar a acção dos EUA - mesmo quando, ao fazê-lo, age contra os seus interesses a longo prazo. Acresce o facto de a Europa enfrentar demasiados problemas internos para assumir qualquer papel significativo de liderança nos assuntos globais.

Não é de admirar que esta crise de liderança tenha prejudicado seriamente a eficácia das instituições internacionais, de que são exemplo a resposta ineficaz do Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas relativamente à crise da Síria e o fracasso da actual ronda de negociações comerciais da Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC). Esta situação assemelha-se ao que sucedeu na década de 1930 - um período no qual, de acordo com o historiador da economia, Charles P. Kindleberger, um vazio de liderança originou uma subprodução dos bens públicos globais, agravando a Grande Depressão.

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