Una sombra se cierne sobre China

BEIJING – La decisión de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos de abandonar su política de “flexibilización cuantitativa” (la masiva compra mensual de activos a largo plazo) suscitó temores de un aterrizaje económico de emergencia en China. Pero los fundamentos económicos del país están sólidos y dan al gobierno espacio de maniobra para evitar que eso suceda, siempre que consiga controlar a la banca informal china.

De mantenerse el rumbo actual, se prevé que el crecimiento del consumo y la inversión en China seguirá más o menos en los niveles del año pasado. Al mismo tiempo, la recuperación de las economías avanzadas, especialmente Estados Unidos y Europa, fortalece la demanda externa, lo que lleva a los analistas a proyectar que este año las exportaciones chinas crecerán más del 10%, esto es, 3 o 4 puntos porcentuales más que en 2013. De ser así, en 2014 el PIB crecería entre 7,5 y 8%, una muy buena cifra.

El problema es que los últimos años, el sector financiero chino acumuló un exceso de riesgo; a fines del año pasado, el agregado monetario amplio (M2) ascendía a 110,7 billones de yuanes (18 billones de dólares), casi el doble que el PIB del país. Con la intención de limitar el crecimiento del indicador M2 (que puede ser señal de un exceso de apalancamiento de la economía), el banco central endureció las condiciones para el otorgamiento de préstamos de la banca comercial, de modo que ante cualquier aumento del M2 se reduce la disponibilidad de crédito.

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