为中国的新常态欢呼

发自北京——在经过了漫长的等待之后,中国经济终于启动了结构再平衡进程,增长率也从2008年以前的超过10%下降到如今的约7.5%。这是否就是中国的“新常态”,还是这个国家预期在未来十年内会出现更低的增长?

首先,中国经济在出口部门方面的再平衡是显而易见的。出口增长从2001~2008年间的年均29%下降到低于10%,使得国外需求作为增长引擎的作用不再如此重要。

此外,制造业就业和产出占总体的比重在去年开始下降。在今年上半年,服务业占据了总体经济增长的超过一半。因此中国的经常账户顺差从2007年占GDP超过10%的顶峰迅速下跌如今大概2%的情况也就不出所料了,

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