¿Traen los nuevos líderes chinos un programa distinto?

STANFORD – Una transición política puede traer consigo o bien un cambio de rumbo o bien la continuidad. Pero a menudo, basta que haya una transición para que se generen incertidumbres que obligan a posponer algunas decisiones políticas importantes y a poner en pausa ciertas actividades económicas a la espera de que se resuelvan.

Un claro ejemplo es el relevo dirigencial que se ha producido otra vez, como cada diez años, en China, y que culminó con la celebración del 18.° Congreso del Partido Comunista de China. Todavía hay quien recuerda aquellos tiempos en los que el cambio de mando en aquel país era una curiosidad política y cultural con escasas repercusiones directas en la economía de las grandes potencias mundiales. Pero esos tiempos hace rato que se han ido.

En la actualidad, China es la segunda economía del mundo, y la tasa de crecimiento anual de su PIB (a pesar de una reciente desaceleración al 7%) todavía supera a las de los demás grandes actores. El papel que cumple China como centro de ensamblaje de gran variedad de productos industriales (por ejemplo, computadoras y teléfonos móviles) sigue siendo esencial y permite un abaratamiento mundial de los bienes de consumo. Esto ha convertido a China en un socio comercial clave de Estados Unidos, de la mayoría de los países europeos y de muchas otras economías, y la ha colocado además en el centro de la dinámica comercial y de cadenas de suministro dentro de Asia.

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