Chine : nouveaux dirigeants, nouveau programme ?

STANFORD – Les transitions en matière de gouvernance politique se traduisent en général soit par un changement d’orientation, soit par une continuité. Mais la seule perspective de telles transitions repousse bien souvent certaines décisions politiques importantes, et fige une partie de l’activité économique, dans l’attente de la résolution des incertitudes qui les accompagnent.

La transition décennale de gouvernance en Chine, marquée par le 18e Congrès du Parti communiste chinois, en est l’illustration. Et si beaucoup se souviendront du temps où le changement de gouvernance en Chine constituait une curiosité politique et culturelle peu porteuse d’implications économiques directes vis à vis des principales puissances mondiales, ce temps est révolu.

La Chine est désormais la deuxième économie planétaire, et, malgré le ralentissement récent d’une croissance annuelle du PIB atteignant les 7%, les performances du pays surpassent celles de tous les autres acteurs majeurs. La Chine demeure le point d’assemblage central et vital de la chaîne d’approvisionnement mondiale de nombreux produits manufacturés tels qu’ordinateurs et téléphones mobiles, offrant des tarifs inférieurs aux consommateurs du monde entier. C’est ce qui a fait de la Chine un partenaire commercial clé des États-Unis, de la plupart des pays européens, et de nombreuses autres économies, en plus de l’avoir positionnée au cœur des échanges et des dynamiques logistiques intra-asiatiques.

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