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世贸组织重生?

新德里—世界贸易组织已经黯然失色了太长时间,用艾略特的话说,是因为“莱曼之水”(日内瓦湖)。作为昔日杰出的多边贸易论坛,世贸组织在最近几年逐渐被边缘化,而最近对全球化的反动——如英国的退欧公投和特朗普当选美国总统——表明这一趋势还将加速。但这些结果实际上可能起到相反的效果,因为三个重要发展态势可能让世贸组织——以及它所代表的多边主义——重塑昔日辉煌。

第一个发展态势是替代性贸易安排的式微。世贸组织在21世纪初达到顶峰,当是时,全球贸易谈判乌拉圭回合刚刚在几年前结束,更多的国家——最引人注目的是中国——答应加入该组织。

但美国和欧盟等主要贸易方随后将注意力从多边贸易协定转向了双边、地区和大地区协议。大地区协议——即跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP)和跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系(TTIP)——给世贸组织造成了特别巨大的威胁。但特朗普政府正是要和这些协议说“不”,至少要将它们搁置起来。

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