The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

多边贸易体系将走向何方?

发自布鲁塞尔——自由贸易的支持者最近好像没剩几个了。尽管实际贸易量正在从危机后的衰退中复苏,大宗商品的价格也逐步下降,但是围绕“全球化”的争议却日益喧嚣,对此美国总统特朗普的当选就是明证——此人的口号就是要撕毁国际协定并强硬对待贸易伙伴。那么对于基于规则的贸易体系来说,这又预示着一个什么样的未来?

大约60年前,也就是当前这个以规则为基础的全球贸易体系被构思出来的时候,美国是世界上唯一的经济“超级大国”,在当时最先进的制造产业中占据着无可置疑的主导地位。既然有了足够的权力来施加规则,又有足够的统治力来确保获得最大的利益份额,它可以 (也确实)扮演着“仁慈的霸主”这一角色。

随着日本和欧洲从二战中复苏——后者还得到了经济一体化的进一步推动,美国的领先优势开始缩小,到了1970年代和80年代,美国开始与欧洲分享制定世界贸易议程的权力。尽管如此,由于美欧之间存在着诸多共同利益,它们一般还会坚持走合作路线。

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