Возвращение Валютных Войн

НЬЮ-ЙОРК - Недавнее решение Банка Японии увеличить объем своего количественного смягчения — это сигнал, что очередной раунд валютных войн может идти полным ходом. Усилия Банка Японии ослабив иену разорить соседа- подход, который вызывал политические реакции во всей Азии и во всем мире.

Центральные банки Китая, Южной Кореи, Тайваня, Сингапура и Таиланда, опасаясь потерять конкурентоспособность по отношению к Японии, смягчили свои денежно-кредитные политики – или в скором времени смягчат еще больше. Европейский центральный банк и центральные банки Швейцарии, Швеции, Норвегии, а также банки в нескольких странах Центральной Европы, возможно, воспользуются количественным смягчением или используют другие нетрадиционные меры, чтобы не допустить роста своих валют.

Все это приведет к укреплению доллара США, так как экономический рост в Соединенных Штатах набирает обороты, и Федеральная Резервная Система дала понять, что в следующем году начнется повышение процентных ставок. Но, если мировой экономический рост останется слабым, а доллар станет слишком сильным, даже ФРС может принять решение повысить процентные ставки позже и более медленно, чтобы избежать чрезмерного укрепления доллара.

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