Die Rückkehr der Währungskriege

NEW YORK – Die jüngste Entscheidung der Bank of Japan, das Ausmaß der quantitativen  Lockerung auszuweiten, ist ein Signal dafür, dass möglicherweise eine weitere Runde von Währungskriegen bevorsteht. Bei den Bemühungen der BOJ zur Schwächung des Yen handelt es sich um einen Ansatz im Stile der Beggar-thy-neighbor-Politik, die in Asien und auf der ganzen Welt politische Reaktionen hervorruft. 

Aus Angst vor dem Verlust der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit gegenüber Japan lockern die Zentralbanken in China, Südkorea, Taiwan, Singapur und Thailand ihre Geldpolitik – oder werden diese Strategie demnächst verstärkt umsetzen. Die Europäische Zentralbank sowie die Zentralbanken der Schweiz, Schwedens, Norwegens und einiger zentraleuropäischer Länder dürften mit quantitativer Lockerung beginnen oder sich anderer unkonventioneller Strategien bedienen, um die Aufwertung ihrer Währungen zu verhindern.  

Da das Wachstum in den Vereinigten Staaten an Fahrt aufnimmt und die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve signalisierte, nächstes Jahr mit der Anhebung der Zinsen zu beginnen, wird all das zu einer Stärkung des Dollars führen. Wenn das globale Wachstum allerdings schwach bleibt und der Dollar zu sehr an Stärke gewinnt, könnte sogar die Fed beschließen, die Zinsen zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt und in geringerem Tempo anzuheben, um eine übermäßige Aufwertung des Dollars zu vermeiden. 

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