Nieuwe valutaoorlogen

NEW YORK – De recente beslissing van de Bank van Japan om de omvang van zijn monetaire verruiming (QE) te vergroten is een signaal dat er wellicht een nieuwe ronde van valutaoorlogen aan zit te komen. De inspanningen van de Bank van Japan om de yen te verzwakken, die inhouden dat deze de zwarte piet probeert door te spelen, veroorzaken beleidsreacties door heel Azië en de rest van de wereld.

Centrale banken in China, Zuid-Korea, Taiwan, Singapore en Thailand, die bang zijn dat hun concurrentiepositie tegenover Japan slechter wordt, versoepelen hun eigen monetaire beleid ook of zullen dat snel meer gaan doen. De Europese Centrale Bank en de centrale banken van Zwitserland, Zweden, Noorwegen en een aantal landen in Centraal-Europa zullen waarschijnlijk ook QE of ander onconventioneel beleid omhelzen om hun valuta niet teveel tegenover andere munten in waarde te laten stijgen.

Dit alles zal leiden tot een sterkere dollar, omdat de groei in de Verenigde Staten aantrekt en de Federal Reserve heeft aangegeven dat ze de rentetarieven vanaf volgend jaar zal gaan verhogen. Maar als de mondiale groei zwak blijft en de dollar te sterk wordt zal zelfs de Fed misschien besluiten om de rentetarieven later en langzamer te verhogen om een buitensporige appreciatie van de dollar te voorkomen.

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