Nieuwe valutaoorlogen

NEW YORK – De recente beslissing van de Bank van Japan om de omvang van zijn monetaire verruiming (QE) te vergroten is een signaal dat er wellicht een nieuwe ronde van valutaoorlogen aan zit te komen. De inspanningen van de Bank van Japan om de yen te verzwakken, die inhouden dat deze de zwarte piet probeert door te spelen, veroorzaken beleidsreacties door heel Azië en de rest van de wereld.

Centrale banken in China, Zuid-Korea, Taiwan, Singapore en Thailand, die bang zijn dat hun concurrentiepositie tegenover Japan slechter wordt, versoepelen hun eigen monetaire beleid ook of zullen dat snel meer gaan doen. De Europese Centrale Bank en de centrale banken van Zwitserland, Zweden, Noorwegen en een aantal landen in Centraal-Europa zullen waarschijnlijk ook QE of ander onconventioneel beleid omhelzen om hun valuta niet teveel tegenover andere munten in waarde te laten stijgen.

Dit alles zal leiden tot een sterkere dollar, omdat de groei in de Verenigde Staten aantrekt en de Federal Reserve heeft aangegeven dat ze de rentetarieven vanaf volgend jaar zal gaan verhogen. Maar als de mondiale groei zwak blijft en de dollar te sterk wordt zal zelfs de Fed misschien besluiten om de rentetarieven later en langzamer te verhogen om een buitensporige appreciatie van de dollar te voorkomen.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.