Návrat měnových válek

NEW YORK – Nedávné rozhodnutí japonské centrální banky rozšířit objem kvantitativního uvolňování je známkou toho, že možná probíhá další kolo měnových válek. Úsilí japonské centrální banky oslabit jen je přístup založený na ožebračování sousedů, vyvolávající politické reakce napříč Asií a po celém světě.

V obavách ze ztráty konkurenční schopnosti ve vztahu k Japonsku své měnové politiky uvolňují – anebo brzy ještě víc uvolní – centrální banky v Číně, Jižní Koreji, Tchaj-wanu, Singapuru a Thajsku. Evropská centrální banka a centrální banky Švýcarska, Švédska, Norska a několika středoevropských zemí pravděpodobně zavedou kvantitativní uvolňování anebo využijí nekonvenčních politik ve snaze předejít zhodnocování svých měn.

To vše povede k posilování amerického dolaru, neboť růst ve Spojených státech se zvedá na nohy a Federální rezervní systém dal najevo, že příští rok začne zvyšovat úrokové sazby. Zůstane-li ovšem globální růst chabý a současně posílí dolar, i Fed se možná rozhodne, že úrokové sazby zvýší později a pomaleji, aby předešel přílišnému zhodnocování americké měny.

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