货币战争回归

纽约—日本银行最近决定提高量化宽松范围,这表明新一轮货币战争可能已经箭在弦上。日本银行的日元贬值政策是一种以邻为壑策略,正在导致整个亚洲和全世界的政策反应。

中国、韩国、中国台湾、新加坡和泰国等地的央行担心丧失相对日本的竞争力,正在放松各自的货币政策——并且很快会加码放松。欧洲央行和瑞士、瑞典、挪威以及一些中欧国家的央行也可能采取量化宽松或采用其他非常规政策阻止货币升值。

所有这些将导致美元升值,因为美国增长抬头和美联储表明将从明年开始提高利率。但是,如果全球增长保持疲软而美元表现出过度强劲,即使是美联储也可能决定延后和更加缓慢地升息以避免美元过度升值。

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