Wang He/Getty Images

Eine Weltwirtschaft ohne China

NEW HAVEN – Steht die chinesische Volkswirtschaft vor dem Zusammenbruch? Mit seinen Schuldenüberhängen und Immobilienblasen, staatseigenen Zombie-Unternehmen und angeschlagenen Banken wird China zunehmend als das nächste Desaster in einer krisenanfälligen Welt gehandelt.

Ich bin nach wie vor überzeugt, dass derartige Befürchtungen übertrieben sind und dass China über die Strategie, die erforderlichen Mittel und das Engagement verfügt, um einen drastischen Strukturwandel hin zu einer dienstleistungsgestützten Verbrauchergesellschaft umzusetzen und dabei gleichzeitig dem furchteinflößenden zyklischen Gegenwind zu trotzen. Doch mir ist klar, dass dies inzwischen eine Minderheitsmeinung ist.

So bringt etwa US-Finanzminister Jacob J. Lew weiterhin die relativ verblüffende Ansicht zum Ausdruck, dass die USA „nicht der einzige Motor der Weltwirtschaft sein können“. In Wahrheit sind sie das gar nicht: Die chinesische Volkswirtschaft ist auf gutem Wege, in diesem Jahr deutlich mehr als viermal so viel zum globalen Wachstum beizutragen wie die USA. Aber möglicherweise geht Lew in seiner Einschätzung der Weltwertschaft in Bezug auf China bereits vom Schlimmsten aus.

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