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没有中国的世界经济

纽黑文—中国经济快要崩溃了吗?债务堆积和房地产泡沫、国企僵尸化、银行步履维艰,中国被越来越多的人描述成危机重重的世界中的下一场灾难。

我仍然这些担心有些杞人忧天,中国有战略、能力和决心实现伟大的结构转型,成为以服务为基础的消费社会,同时成功地规避巨大的周期性困难。但我当然也知道目前这是少数人的观点。

比如,美国财政部长雅各布·卢仍然持有相当令人难以理解的观点:美国“无法成为世界经济唯一的引擎。”事实上它也不是:今年中国经济对全球增长的贡献很有可能是美国的四倍有余。但也许卢已经在其对世界经济的评估中假设了中国遭遇最坏情形。

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